Our headline may seem to juxtapose three unrelated things. But we think they have to be seen together. And actually, there's one more thing... and it's a doozy.
To recap where the process stands: the TSE resumed counting vote tallies without representatives of the other parties. At the end, it says its count shows the incumbent president with a lead of around 55,000 votes. According to the TSE, the next step is for the parties to register challenges and petitions, within 10 days, and then within 20 days the TSE will certify an outcome to the election.
(In reporting this story, the Voice of America slipped up, describing Juan Orlando Hernández as "U.S.-backed"; the US doesn't normally take sides in a foreign election.)
No one who has watched the situation unfold can be completely satisfied that the vote count has been transparent or without problems. Unexplained prolonged delays in posting numbers, computer crashes that received different explanations at different times, and above all, the weird behavior of the numbers before and after the more than day-long delay, have Hondurans and international observers alike worried.
The OAS actually went so far in its preliminary report to conclude that "the tight margin of the results, and the irregularities, errors and
systemic problems that have surrounded this election do not allow the
Mission to have certainty about the results".
In the body of the report, the OAS expresses concerns about the vote counting process, noting some ballot boxes arrived open, missing documents, or without security. They also write that after initially counting ballots as they arrived, at some point the TSE "altered the order" to use "criteria that were not explained". So the vote counting switched from non-selective, to selective-- but we don't know what criteria were used to select votes to count.
The OAS concluded that the only route out would be for the main candidates to negotiate an agreement to review the 1000+ poll tallies that were scrutinized for inconsistencies, as well as recount the 5000+ tallies counted after the initial phase of vote counting, when the trend changed, as well as do a complete recount of three departments (Lempira, La Paz, and Intibuca), rural states that had exaggeratedly high reported voter turnout. That is a complete endorsement of the position of the Alianza.
Independently, The Economist, which previously published an article about a tape they received apparently showing training of National Party operatives in ways to cheat, undertook a statistical analysis that gives support to Alianza complaints that the change in voting trends after the break in counting is statistically improbable.
And that brings us to today's amazing development: the police across Honduras, including the US supported militarized policing units, standing down and returning to their bases, refusing to follow the orders they received to stop protests. Under the state of exception declared by Juan Orlando Hernández, free circulation in the country was limited, a night time curfew was declared, and the armed forces and police were directed to remove protesters. What followed was violence, including deadly violence.
Announcing their stand-down, the national police spokesman said "“We want peace, and we will not follow government orders – we’re tired of this".
When a sitting president who has concentrated power loses the ability to command the police, it is a signal of loss of control over the forces necessary to maintain dominance. Even if the TSE were to declare him the winner, it is not clear how governable Honduras would be for a president who took advantage of a somewhat ambiguous court ruling to seek a deeply unpopular second term in office.
After the 2013 election, when Hernández received only 37% of the vote, the three parties that split the majority of the presidential votes did not cooperate as a concerted opposition. This time around, two of those parties entered an alliance and ran an agreed on presidential candidate. This time, the Liberal Party candidate who trailed in the polls has been vocal in saying his review of the poll tallies says the Alianza won, and has supported their calls for a recount, even a full 100% recount if needed.
And here's the extra bit: according to a Honduran lawyer, whose twitter profile says she is a Liberal Party member, election law actually demands a recount of some votes already.
This isn't because of the uncertainties about counting the poll tallies that are already being debated.
It's because the margin between candidates is less than the number of null votes. Null votes are those marked as invalid at the polling place, and thus not included in the totals on the poll tallies from which the central electoral authorities work.
The law appears to require reviewing the null votes from the original ballots, if there are more of them than the margin between candidates. With around 55,000 votes officially between the two candidates, the number of votes marked null at the polling places is 135,000.
The TSE is unlikely to do any of this. Unfortunately, we doubt Hernández will risk the victory he went so far to gain and agree to the kind of recount and scrutiny of the counting process that is being called for by the Alianza, the Liberal Party-- and the OAS.
Until the army stands down and returns to its barracks. Unlikely, yes. But stranger things seem to be happening...
Showing posts with label Juan Orlando Hernandez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Juan Orlando Hernandez. Show all posts
Monday, December 4, 2017
Sunday, November 26, 2017
The situation in Tegucigalpa
On Twitter, sources associated with the coalition Alianza are reporting that the Tribunal Supremo Electoral has cut off their access to vote counts. UPDATE: The TSE, on Twitter, says they have not cut off data provided to the parties.
The TSE has announced that they will be making a statement soon-- but the deadline has passed.
Meanwhile, Juan Orlando Hernández has declared himself the winner, based on exit polling.
He has mobilized the armed forces to guard the entry to the capital city and deployed them in the Tribunal Supremo Electoral center in Tegucigalpa. He has said he won't tolerate any protests.
The Honduran news source NotiBomba is reporting on Twitter numbers they say they received from the TSE that show the Alianza candidate, Salvador Nasralla, in the lead, with 44.5%, to Hernández 41.3%. They are not clear on when they received these numbers. We do not know how much of the vote has been counted, but the number of votes reported by this source-- 3 million-- implies about 50-60% of the vote has been counted.
The TSE has announced that they will be making a statement soon-- but the deadline has passed.
Meanwhile, Juan Orlando Hernández has declared himself the winner, based on exit polling.
He has mobilized the armed forces to guard the entry to the capital city and deployed them in the Tribunal Supremo Electoral center in Tegucigalpa. He has said he won't tolerate any protests.
The Honduran news source NotiBomba is reporting on Twitter numbers they say they received from the TSE that show the Alianza candidate, Salvador Nasralla, in the lead, with 44.5%, to Hernández 41.3%. They are not clear on when they received these numbers. We do not know how much of the vote has been counted, but the number of votes reported by this source-- 3 million-- implies about 50-60% of the vote has been counted.
Electoral coverage: Part one
At the New York Times, Elizabeth Malkin continues to provide some of the best informed coverage of Honduras in the English language media. Her story on the election lays out clearly the reasons many Hondurans are unhappy with this election, and think it is already stolen: the approval of re-election by a Supreme Court a majority of whose justices owe their office to the current president's actions when he was head of Congress; "reforms" of election processes that give that president's party more control over ballot counting; and the public and notorious evidence of corrupt practices by the same party in the last election.
Meanwhile, Reuters provides what purports to be a simple comparison of the proposed policies of the National Party and Alianza candidates for president. It's textbook example of how to make a selective case without seeming to have an opinion. Start with the characterization of Juan Orlando Hernández as US-friendly and approved by White House Chief of Staff John Kelly. The implication would be that Salvador Nasralla and the Alianza are somehow anti-US. That's not really the difference between the two parties: Honduran political parties all want good relations with the US. What the National Party provides, though, is a willing partner in militarization of policing in Honduras that some US policy makers think is a key to ending drug trafficking (or at least diminishing it). Hernández also has accepted US characterization of undocumented migration to the US as his country's problem, leading him to militarize the borders to stop people fleeing violence in the cities and drug-dominated areas.
Reuters pairs the pro-US characterization of Hernández with a description of the Alianza as supposedly dominated by former president Mel Zelaya, saying "many believe" Zelaya is the "true force" behind the Alianza. This echoes the line taken by the National Party in an attempt to discourage voters in Honduras from supporting the opposition. It ignores the reality that Salvador Nasralla is the Alianza candidate because his insurgent party, the Partido Anti-corrupcíon, ran strongly in the 2013 election. Nasralla leads his own political movement, and the fact that what were competing parties in 2013 have now joined forces is a testament to the common goals of Libre and PAC: removing power from the traditional parties seen as corrupt bastions of an oligarchy.
Reuters also reports that polls show Hérnandez leading. They don't identify the polls, or give a link. Three polling companies were approved to do polls by the Honduran electoral tribunal, a new practice that narrowed the data stream when compared to 2013. One of the approved companies is the consultant used by the National Party. Legally, none of them are allowed to poll after September, so any polls from these official sources would be stale. Private polling done by the parties might be available, but legally, they also cannot share any such information.
One effect of published claims that Hernández has an established lead, of course, is to give his election an aura of inevitability. That could hamper efforts already promised by both the Alianza and the Liberal Party (the traditional opposition, depleted in the wake of the 2009 coup and fourth in votes for presidency in 2013) to contest any hint of fraud.
There are already reports from Honduras of intimidation of poll watchers. Some international observers have been refused entry into the country.
TeleSur has a worthwhile infographic showing voting results based on exit polling. So far, Hernández is getting fewer votes than the last published polls, while the Liberal party candidate is drawing significantly more votes.
Obviously, we have no idea which parts of the country this exit polling reflects. But the present numbers show, again, the National Party falling far below a majority, with the number of votes going to the Alianza and Liberal parties together surpassing the National Party vote.
Because of Honduran law, a plurality of votes, no matter how low, will win the office. It will be important to watch how international media report the results: a minority win should not be portrayed as legitimating the National Party. And equally, the international press needs to cover what happens after this election, how complaints are treated, and not accept the deterioration of public trust as somehow inevitable.
Meanwhile, Reuters provides what purports to be a simple comparison of the proposed policies of the National Party and Alianza candidates for president. It's textbook example of how to make a selective case without seeming to have an opinion. Start with the characterization of Juan Orlando Hernández as US-friendly and approved by White House Chief of Staff John Kelly. The implication would be that Salvador Nasralla and the Alianza are somehow anti-US. That's not really the difference between the two parties: Honduran political parties all want good relations with the US. What the National Party provides, though, is a willing partner in militarization of policing in Honduras that some US policy makers think is a key to ending drug trafficking (or at least diminishing it). Hernández also has accepted US characterization of undocumented migration to the US as his country's problem, leading him to militarize the borders to stop people fleeing violence in the cities and drug-dominated areas.
Reuters pairs the pro-US characterization of Hernández with a description of the Alianza as supposedly dominated by former president Mel Zelaya, saying "many believe" Zelaya is the "true force" behind the Alianza. This echoes the line taken by the National Party in an attempt to discourage voters in Honduras from supporting the opposition. It ignores the reality that Salvador Nasralla is the Alianza candidate because his insurgent party, the Partido Anti-corrupcíon, ran strongly in the 2013 election. Nasralla leads his own political movement, and the fact that what were competing parties in 2013 have now joined forces is a testament to the common goals of Libre and PAC: removing power from the traditional parties seen as corrupt bastions of an oligarchy.
Reuters also reports that polls show Hérnandez leading. They don't identify the polls, or give a link. Three polling companies were approved to do polls by the Honduran electoral tribunal, a new practice that narrowed the data stream when compared to 2013. One of the approved companies is the consultant used by the National Party. Legally, none of them are allowed to poll after September, so any polls from these official sources would be stale. Private polling done by the parties might be available, but legally, they also cannot share any such information.
One effect of published claims that Hernández has an established lead, of course, is to give his election an aura of inevitability. That could hamper efforts already promised by both the Alianza and the Liberal Party (the traditional opposition, depleted in the wake of the 2009 coup and fourth in votes for presidency in 2013) to contest any hint of fraud.
There are already reports from Honduras of intimidation of poll watchers. Some international observers have been refused entry into the country.
TeleSur has a worthwhile infographic showing voting results based on exit polling. So far, Hernández is getting fewer votes than the last published polls, while the Liberal party candidate is drawing significantly more votes.
Obviously, we have no idea which parts of the country this exit polling reflects. But the present numbers show, again, the National Party falling far below a majority, with the number of votes going to the Alianza and Liberal parties together surpassing the National Party vote.
Because of Honduran law, a plurality of votes, no matter how low, will win the office. It will be important to watch how international media report the results: a minority win should not be portrayed as legitimating the National Party. And equally, the international press needs to cover what happens after this election, how complaints are treated, and not accept the deterioration of public trust as somehow inevitable.
Friday, October 23, 2015
Yoro Mayors Lead Drug Gangs
Since 2014 three different Mayors in the Honduran department of Yoro have been identified as criminals participating in murder for hire and the drug trade in Honduras.
The Department of Yoro, readers will remember, is important to the Zetas. It's where their drug planes historically have landed, both in clandestine airstrips and along established paved roads.
In July 2014, the Mayor of the town of Yoro, Arnulfo Urbina Soto, was arrested for drug trafficking, murder, rape, money laundering, and the possession of illegal weapons. After a two year long investigation, the National Police alleged that Urbina Soto led a drug trafficking gang of 37 people that had been operating at least since 2009. The National Police allege that Urbina Soto expropriated land in the small towns of Rio Nance and Rio Abajo, Locomapa, Yoro and converted them to landing strips for drug planes.
At the time of his arrest Urbina Soto, in addition to being Mayor, was a National Party operative, having coordinated the Presidential campaign of Juan Orlando Hernandez in 2013 in Yoro. His daughter, Diana, is a member of the Honduran Congress.
Urbina Soto is not alone.
In August 2015 the Fuerza de Seguridad Interinstitutional (FUSINA) went to Jocon, Yoro, to arrest members of Los Solis, wanted for being hit men, murderers, and cattle thieves, among other crimes. They captured five alleged members of Los Solis, but failed to capture the alleged leader, Mayor Santos Gabriel Elvir Arteaga. Los Solis was established around 2000 by the Solis family, but when Elvir Arteaga became Mayor in 2009 he also gained control of Los Solis, according to Police, and only two Solis family members are thought to be still part of the group. Mayor Santos Elvir is a member of the Liberal Party and still at large.
Thursday the Mayor of Sulaco, Yoro, was arrested on charges of homicide, murder, illicit association, and carrying illegal weapons. Mayor José Adalid Gonzalez Morales is alleged to be the leader of Los Banegas, a group operating in and around Sulaco, Yoro, consisting of 30-40 members. They are wanted for cattle theft, extortion, robbing buses and trucks, murder, and distribution of narcotics in Sulaco. The investigation into Gonzales Morales began three months ago when police arrested seven members of the group.
Los Banegas are alleged to have killed eight people in and around Sulaco. Gonzalez Morales is accused of killing peasant activist Secundino Orellana, who previously had been arrested and shot during peasant land protests.
In the 2013 elections, Gonzales Morales, a member of the National Party, received a verbal endorsement at a National Party rally by then Presidential Candidate Juan Orlando Hernandez, who called him "one of the best Mayors Honduras has ever had."
The Department of Yoro, readers will remember, is important to the Zetas. It's where their drug planes historically have landed, both in clandestine airstrips and along established paved roads.
In July 2014, the Mayor of the town of Yoro, Arnulfo Urbina Soto, was arrested for drug trafficking, murder, rape, money laundering, and the possession of illegal weapons. After a two year long investigation, the National Police alleged that Urbina Soto led a drug trafficking gang of 37 people that had been operating at least since 2009. The National Police allege that Urbina Soto expropriated land in the small towns of Rio Nance and Rio Abajo, Locomapa, Yoro and converted them to landing strips for drug planes.
At the time of his arrest Urbina Soto, in addition to being Mayor, was a National Party operative, having coordinated the Presidential campaign of Juan Orlando Hernandez in 2013 in Yoro. His daughter, Diana, is a member of the Honduran Congress.
Urbina Soto is not alone.
In August 2015 the Fuerza de Seguridad Interinstitutional (FUSINA) went to Jocon, Yoro, to arrest members of Los Solis, wanted for being hit men, murderers, and cattle thieves, among other crimes. They captured five alleged members of Los Solis, but failed to capture the alleged leader, Mayor Santos Gabriel Elvir Arteaga. Los Solis was established around 2000 by the Solis family, but when Elvir Arteaga became Mayor in 2009 he also gained control of Los Solis, according to Police, and only two Solis family members are thought to be still part of the group. Mayor Santos Elvir is a member of the Liberal Party and still at large.
Thursday the Mayor of Sulaco, Yoro, was arrested on charges of homicide, murder, illicit association, and carrying illegal weapons. Mayor José Adalid Gonzalez Morales is alleged to be the leader of Los Banegas, a group operating in and around Sulaco, Yoro, consisting of 30-40 members. They are wanted for cattle theft, extortion, robbing buses and trucks, murder, and distribution of narcotics in Sulaco. The investigation into Gonzales Morales began three months ago when police arrested seven members of the group.
Los Banegas are alleged to have killed eight people in and around Sulaco. Gonzalez Morales is accused of killing peasant activist Secundino Orellana, who previously had been arrested and shot during peasant land protests.
In the 2013 elections, Gonzales Morales, a member of the National Party, received a verbal endorsement at a National Party rally by then Presidential Candidate Juan Orlando Hernandez, who called him "one of the best Mayors Honduras has ever had."
Sunday, January 26, 2014
Political Promises in Honduras
They say you can tell when a lawyer is lying because his lips are moving.
Well, in Honduras, the same should be said of politicians.
Back on July 20, Congress passed a controversial law called the Ley de promoción del desarrollo y reconversion de deuda publica (Decreto 145-2013) by which Honduras seeks to monetize its income stream from its national resources. We wrote about it, and the controversy surrounding the sudden introduction and passage of the law back on July 29, and you should reread it for details about the law.
The law was then sent to Porfirio Lobo Sosa for action on July 23.
Now in theory, Honduran law says Lobo Sosa had 10 days to either sign or veto the law. He signs the law by writing an order that says "Por Tanto Ejecutese" or vetos it by writing "Vuelva al Congreso" with a letter explaining what he thinks is wrong with it. If he takes no action, it enters limbo. It becomes law, but it is not in effect or enforceable until its printed in La Gaceta.
Porfirio Lobo Sosa initially defended the law, saying :
But the law provoked a lot of opposition, both from business( the Associacion Nacional de Industriales de Honduras (ANDI) and the Asociacion Nacional de Minería Metálica, and even COHEP), unions (like Sindicato de Trabajadores de la Industria de Bebidas y Similares), and campesino groups.
On August 15, 2013, after Lobo Sosa had to have acted one way or another, he announced he would not sign the law, not because he didn't believe in it, but rather because it might hurt Juan Orlando Hernandez's chances of getting elected:
Now he was very clear to say he's not going to veto the law, but just put it in his desk. That meant the law was already law, just not in effect because it hadn't been published.
And the law wasn't a campaign issue.
Then the Presidential campaign concluded, with Juan Orlando Hernandez declared President. When it could no longer influence the results of the election, Porfirio Lobo Sosa signed the law on December 18, and ordered its publication in La Gaceta where it appeared in the December 20, 2013 issue, which came out this week (they're slow to publish).
It is now in effect, and the government of Juan Orlando Hernandez, who championed the law, will have 90 days to implement the administrative structure and regulations that will govern the issuance securities backed by natural resources income streams.
Honduras wants to sell the net present value of its wind, its rivers, and its mineral rights. Who will buy them?
Well, in Honduras, the same should be said of politicians.
Back on July 20, Congress passed a controversial law called the Ley de promoción del desarrollo y reconversion de deuda publica (Decreto 145-2013) by which Honduras seeks to monetize its income stream from its national resources. We wrote about it, and the controversy surrounding the sudden introduction and passage of the law back on July 29, and you should reread it for details about the law.
The law was then sent to Porfirio Lobo Sosa for action on July 23.
Now in theory, Honduran law says Lobo Sosa had 10 days to either sign or veto the law. He signs the law by writing an order that says "Por Tanto Ejecutese" or vetos it by writing "Vuelva al Congreso" with a letter explaining what he thinks is wrong with it. If he takes no action, it enters limbo. It becomes law, but it is not in effect or enforceable until its printed in La Gaceta.
Porfirio Lobo Sosa initially defended the law, saying :
To veto this law would be to go against the interests of the nation.
But the law provoked a lot of opposition, both from business( the Associacion Nacional de Industriales de Honduras (ANDI) and the Asociacion Nacional de Minería Metálica, and even COHEP), unions (like Sindicato de Trabajadores de la Industria de Bebidas y Similares), and campesino groups.
On August 15, 2013, after Lobo Sosa had to have acted one way or another, he announced he would not sign the law, not because he didn't believe in it, but rather because it might hurt Juan Orlando Hernandez's chances of getting elected:
I'm not going to convert this into a campaign issue. When the new president arrives he can decide to approve it or not; it will stay in the desk for him.
Now he was very clear to say he's not going to veto the law, but just put it in his desk. That meant the law was already law, just not in effect because it hadn't been published.
And the law wasn't a campaign issue.
Then the Presidential campaign concluded, with Juan Orlando Hernandez declared President. When it could no longer influence the results of the election, Porfirio Lobo Sosa signed the law on December 18, and ordered its publication in La Gaceta where it appeared in the December 20, 2013 issue, which came out this week (they're slow to publish).
It is now in effect, and the government of Juan Orlando Hernandez, who championed the law, will have 90 days to implement the administrative structure and regulations that will govern the issuance securities backed by natural resources income streams.
Honduras wants to sell the net present value of its wind, its rivers, and its mineral rights. Who will buy them?
Monday, December 23, 2013
New Taxes, Old Economic Problems
The lame duck Honduran Congress is now piling on taxes to try and make up for the last four years of spending as the Lobo Sosa administration prepares to give way to the presidency of Juan Orlando Hernández.
On Saturday, December 21, the Congress passed a new, extensive series of taxes and rule changes designed to bring up to 4000 million lempiras ($200 million) in new revenue to the government over the next year. The same measure imposes restrictions on the transfer of income between government branches that is expected to bring about a further 12000 million lempiras ($600 million) in savings.
Everyone will pay a new "special contribution" of 3% on all sales. This is on top of the already existing sales tax of 12%.
All customs tax exemptions (commonly used by religious institutions, businesses aimed at tourism, newspapers, and power generation companies) are cancelled. Telephone and cable television service will be subject to the 15% tax, but internet service will continue to be taxed at 12%.
Everyone except those given an exemption under legislation called the Regímenes Especiales de Importación y Turismo will pay a further 5% tax on taxable income greater than 1 million lempiras ($50,000).
Consumption taxes are in general regressive-- they disproportionately affect the poorest members of a population. In addition to the general impact that the Honduran poor will experience from the added special contribution tax, other aspects of the new law will sharply affect their use of energy.
Some consumers receive a subsidy on their electric service. Until now, that subsidy has been for those who consume less than 150 kw/month. From today forward, the subsidy will only be for those who consume 75 kw/month or less.
Gasoline will be taxed a further 5.3 lempiras/gallon ($0.25/gallon). The income is supposed to be earmarked for infrastructure and social welfare projects.
But the poor are not targeted by the new sweeping tax increases: property owners will see sharp increases in taxation as well.
The central government will retain 10% of the gains from the purchase or sale of property, bonds, rights, and titles as a capital gains tax. Dividends will be taxed at 10% as well.
Consumption and property transfer taxes make sense as policy because Honduras has a poor record of tax collection on basic income tax. But that doesn't mean income tax rates were left alone, either.
Foreign companies will pay a tax of 10% on gross income in Honduras. Honduran companies will pay 1.5% on their gross income over 3 million lempiras ($150,000) except if their business is selling cement, services given to the government, pharmaceuticals for human consumption, petroleum products, or supplies for baking, which will pay a tax of 0.75%.
The tax law also contemplates retaining more money for the central government at the expense of entities it owes fixed levels of funding.
The new law freezes the 2014 budget for the central government at 2013 levels. But it also changes how amounts specified in the constitution for other government entities, such as municipal governments and the National Autonomous University, are calculated. Some kinds of income that previously counted in calculating the amounts to transfer will be exempt from being counted now. This means that all dependencies specified as receiving a fixed percent of the government income will receive a budget cut, while the central government will retain more.
On top of all this, there is yet another revision to the security tax.
This revision extends the security tax to cover previously exempt bank accounts with deposits under 120,000 lempiras. Now, all savings and checking accounts will be taxed. COHEP, one of the principal business organizations in the country, warns that this might lead to capital flight.
So why is Congress doing this now?
Part of the answer is that Honduras simply has to find more revenue or the government cannot continue. And some of the answer is partisan politics, with a hand-off of government from one National Party president to another, something that has never happened since the new Honduran constitution was set in place in the 1980s. Even with the new taxes and savings envisioned under this law, it will not close the fiscal deficit under which the government operates.
Right now the lame duck Congress has enough National Party members to pass anything they want, short of a constitutional amendment. The new Congress might not be so amenable. The National Party will not have sufficient representation to do what it wants. It will need to make alliances with other parties in order to enact legislation, making laws like this one difficult to pass.
Most of the Liberal Party members in the present Congress opposed the new taxes, and suggested that the press headline their coverage "National Party passes new taxes". The Liberal membership in the incoming Congress will be joined by LIBRE and PAC contingents that can also be expected to be less inclined to automatically agree with the ruling party's legislative direction
The Lobo Sosa government used 1.4 billion dollars in borrowing to make ends meet this year. Under the new tax law's projections, the increases will, at best, cover half of that.
It will be up to the next government to figure out how to cover the other half, while improving actual tax collection enough to cover those projections. And that is presumably why, along with changes in the leadership of the police and military, the first choices for government offices made by Juan Orlando Hernández included a new head of the Dirección Ejecutivo de Ingresos (Executive Office of Income), Miriam Guzman, reportedly already at work.
On Saturday, December 21, the Congress passed a new, extensive series of taxes and rule changes designed to bring up to 4000 million lempiras ($200 million) in new revenue to the government over the next year. The same measure imposes restrictions on the transfer of income between government branches that is expected to bring about a further 12000 million lempiras ($600 million) in savings.
Everyone will pay a new "special contribution" of 3% on all sales. This is on top of the already existing sales tax of 12%.
All customs tax exemptions (commonly used by religious institutions, businesses aimed at tourism, newspapers, and power generation companies) are cancelled. Telephone and cable television service will be subject to the 15% tax, but internet service will continue to be taxed at 12%.
Everyone except those given an exemption under legislation called the Regímenes Especiales de Importación y Turismo will pay a further 5% tax on taxable income greater than 1 million lempiras ($50,000).
Consumption taxes are in general regressive-- they disproportionately affect the poorest members of a population. In addition to the general impact that the Honduran poor will experience from the added special contribution tax, other aspects of the new law will sharply affect their use of energy.
Some consumers receive a subsidy on their electric service. Until now, that subsidy has been for those who consume less than 150 kw/month. From today forward, the subsidy will only be for those who consume 75 kw/month or less.
Gasoline will be taxed a further 5.3 lempiras/gallon ($0.25/gallon). The income is supposed to be earmarked for infrastructure and social welfare projects.
But the poor are not targeted by the new sweeping tax increases: property owners will see sharp increases in taxation as well.
The central government will retain 10% of the gains from the purchase or sale of property, bonds, rights, and titles as a capital gains tax. Dividends will be taxed at 10% as well.
Consumption and property transfer taxes make sense as policy because Honduras has a poor record of tax collection on basic income tax. But that doesn't mean income tax rates were left alone, either.
Foreign companies will pay a tax of 10% on gross income in Honduras. Honduran companies will pay 1.5% on their gross income over 3 million lempiras ($150,000) except if their business is selling cement, services given to the government, pharmaceuticals for human consumption, petroleum products, or supplies for baking, which will pay a tax of 0.75%.
The tax law also contemplates retaining more money for the central government at the expense of entities it owes fixed levels of funding.
The new law freezes the 2014 budget for the central government at 2013 levels. But it also changes how amounts specified in the constitution for other government entities, such as municipal governments and the National Autonomous University, are calculated. Some kinds of income that previously counted in calculating the amounts to transfer will be exempt from being counted now. This means that all dependencies specified as receiving a fixed percent of the government income will receive a budget cut, while the central government will retain more.
On top of all this, there is yet another revision to the security tax.
This revision extends the security tax to cover previously exempt bank accounts with deposits under 120,000 lempiras. Now, all savings and checking accounts will be taxed. COHEP, one of the principal business organizations in the country, warns that this might lead to capital flight.
So why is Congress doing this now?
Part of the answer is that Honduras simply has to find more revenue or the government cannot continue. And some of the answer is partisan politics, with a hand-off of government from one National Party president to another, something that has never happened since the new Honduran constitution was set in place in the 1980s. Even with the new taxes and savings envisioned under this law, it will not close the fiscal deficit under which the government operates.
Right now the lame duck Congress has enough National Party members to pass anything they want, short of a constitutional amendment. The new Congress might not be so amenable. The National Party will not have sufficient representation to do what it wants. It will need to make alliances with other parties in order to enact legislation, making laws like this one difficult to pass.
Most of the Liberal Party members in the present Congress opposed the new taxes, and suggested that the press headline their coverage "National Party passes new taxes". The Liberal membership in the incoming Congress will be joined by LIBRE and PAC contingents that can also be expected to be less inclined to automatically agree with the ruling party's legislative direction
The Lobo Sosa government used 1.4 billion dollars in borrowing to make ends meet this year. Under the new tax law's projections, the increases will, at best, cover half of that.
It will be up to the next government to figure out how to cover the other half, while improving actual tax collection enough to cover those projections. And that is presumably why, along with changes in the leadership of the police and military, the first choices for government offices made by Juan Orlando Hernández included a new head of the Dirección Ejecutivo de Ingresos (Executive Office of Income), Miriam Guzman, reportedly already at work.
Monday, January 14, 2013
Third Time's the Charm?
Today Honduran Supreme Court Chief Justice Rivera Aviles named a new special Constitutional Branch of the Supreme Court.
We are now up to the third Constitutional Branch named to hear the legal appeals concerning the dismissal of four Supreme Court justices in an illegal act by the Honduran Congress last December 12.
The first attempt at a new Constitutional Branch, formed when Rivera Aviles seated the four de-facto justices named by Congress, recused itself from hearing this case.
The second, made up of Supreme Court justices who had signed a letter in support of the dismissed justices, recused itself because of personal friendship with the parties in the case.
Today Rivera Aviles named himself, Víctor Manuel Martínez, José Tomás Arita Valle, and Raúl Antonio Henríquez, all currently Supreme Court justices, to a specially constituted panel to hear the case, along with Judith Utrecho Lopez, head of the Judicial School.
The panel now has 72 hours to decide if it can hear the appeal.
Arita Valle, you may recall, is the justice who claims to have signed the secret warrant that purportedly authorized the military to arrest President Mel Zelaya in the coup of 2009, an action for which the US Embassy temporarily removed his visa to enter the US.
This third panel may still recuse itself because Justice Raul Henriquez did speak out against the firings as an unconstitutional act and more or less called the Chief Justice Rivera Aviles a liar when Rivera Aviles claimed not to have participated in negotiation sessions leading to the Congressional action with Juan Orlando Hernandez.
This latest attempt to set in place a hearing panel, by the way, exhausts the occupants of the Supreme Court. Should this panel recuse itself, Rivera Aviles will have to turn to appeals court judges, or the list of 30 nominees to the Supreme Court from last time that weren't elected by Congress to serve.
And meanwhile, the Honduran Supreme Court remains in limbo, with four current serving justices whose status has been questioned, and four others who seek to regain their position.
We are now up to the third Constitutional Branch named to hear the legal appeals concerning the dismissal of four Supreme Court justices in an illegal act by the Honduran Congress last December 12.
The first attempt at a new Constitutional Branch, formed when Rivera Aviles seated the four de-facto justices named by Congress, recused itself from hearing this case.
The second, made up of Supreme Court justices who had signed a letter in support of the dismissed justices, recused itself because of personal friendship with the parties in the case.
Today Rivera Aviles named himself, Víctor Manuel Martínez, José Tomás Arita Valle, and Raúl Antonio Henríquez, all currently Supreme Court justices, to a specially constituted panel to hear the case, along with Judith Utrecho Lopez, head of the Judicial School.
The panel now has 72 hours to decide if it can hear the appeal.
Arita Valle, you may recall, is the justice who claims to have signed the secret warrant that purportedly authorized the military to arrest President Mel Zelaya in the coup of 2009, an action for which the US Embassy temporarily removed his visa to enter the US.
This third panel may still recuse itself because Justice Raul Henriquez did speak out against the firings as an unconstitutional act and more or less called the Chief Justice Rivera Aviles a liar when Rivera Aviles claimed not to have participated in negotiation sessions leading to the Congressional action with Juan Orlando Hernandez.
This latest attempt to set in place a hearing panel, by the way, exhausts the occupants of the Supreme Court. Should this panel recuse itself, Rivera Aviles will have to turn to appeals court judges, or the list of 30 nominees to the Supreme Court from last time that weren't elected by Congress to serve.
And meanwhile, the Honduran Supreme Court remains in limbo, with four current serving justices whose status has been questioned, and four others who seek to regain their position.
Thursday, August 9, 2012
More Policing, Less Legality
General Rene Osorio Canales announced Tuesday that selection had already begun for the new elite military unit, Los Tigres (The Tigers), who will function like a police SWAT team.
The unit, when organized, will have 200 members. Osorio Canales revealed that the officers from the military and police assigned to the group will recommend the function, organization, and training of the Tigers.
One small problem. The final version of the law to create the unit has not even been written; so the final version has yet to be presented to Porfirio Lobo Sosa, the national Congress, or the Minister of Defense.
Osorio Canales told La Tribuna that the final draft law would be presented to Lobo Sosa, Juan Orlando Hernandez, and Osorio Canales's boss, Minister of Security Pompeyo Bonilla, before the 15th of August.
An early version of the proposed law was sent to Congress on July 26.
This draft law splits the command structure of the unit. It is nominally a rapid response police force fighting organized crime, but will train on military bases.
In the fight against organized crime, the proposed unit will be under the command of the Minister of Security, while in time of war, it would report to the Defense Minister.
The proposed organization supports Lobo Sosa's goal of merging the Security and Defense Ministries. It also continues a troubling trend of merging civilian policing and military defense.
Osorio Canales seems to be constituting the unit before it has been authorized.
By Honduran law, Congress must pass legislation creating the unit and assign it a budget. The president must sign the law, and then it must be published, before anyone can legally spend a penny on the Tigers.
Government spending without budgetary support is a crime in Honduras. It was one of the major criticisms of the Zelaya government, in its final year in office, when it operated without a congressionally-approved budget.
But times, of course, have changed. Who needs to worry about due process or the rule of law in Honduras today?
The unit, when organized, will have 200 members. Osorio Canales revealed that the officers from the military and police assigned to the group will recommend the function, organization, and training of the Tigers.
One small problem. The final version of the law to create the unit has not even been written; so the final version has yet to be presented to Porfirio Lobo Sosa, the national Congress, or the Minister of Defense.
Osorio Canales told La Tribuna that the final draft law would be presented to Lobo Sosa, Juan Orlando Hernandez, and Osorio Canales's boss, Minister of Security Pompeyo Bonilla, before the 15th of August.
An early version of the proposed law was sent to Congress on July 26.
This draft law splits the command structure of the unit. It is nominally a rapid response police force fighting organized crime, but will train on military bases.
In the fight against organized crime, the proposed unit will be under the command of the Minister of Security, while in time of war, it would report to the Defense Minister.
The proposed organization supports Lobo Sosa's goal of merging the Security and Defense Ministries. It also continues a troubling trend of merging civilian policing and military defense.
Osorio Canales seems to be constituting the unit before it has been authorized.
By Honduran law, Congress must pass legislation creating the unit and assign it a budget. The president must sign the law, and then it must be published, before anyone can legally spend a penny on the Tigers.
Government spending without budgetary support is a crime in Honduras. It was one of the major criticisms of the Zelaya government, in its final year in office, when it operated without a congressionally-approved budget.
But times, of course, have changed. Who needs to worry about due process or the rule of law in Honduras today?
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Extradition
Occasionally the actions of the National Congress of Honduras come pretty close to violating the intent of the Honduran constitution without actually violating the letter of the law. Nowhere is that more apparent than in how the Congress under the direction of Juan Orlando Hernandez skates on the edge of the law when it comes to Constitutional amendments.
Article 373 of the Honduran constitution, as clarified in 1986 by Decree 169-86, states that any constitutional amendment must be approved in two sequent Congressional sessions. The idea is that there be adequate time to publicize and debate the changes, both among members of Congress and the informed public. I doubt, however, that the framers of the constitution ever envisioned that those two sequent sessions would be literally six days apart, and that the Congressional session might be closed, and the vote secret, as has frequently been the case in the Congress as administered by Juan Orlando Hernandez.
Until last Thursday night, Honduras had a constitution that prohibited extradition. This prohibition was enshrined in Article 102 of the constitution. It states that no Honduran may be forcibly expatriated. It was clearly violated in 2009 with the military's expatriation of Manuel Zelaya to Costa Rica, officially whitewashed by the current Honduran Supreme Court.
But it was also violated back in 1988 with the forced extradition of Juan Ramon Matta Ballesteros from Tegucigalpa to the United States. The military was involved in this extradition as well. Matta was a suspected member of the Medellin drug cartel living in Tegucigalpa. He had been known to the DEA since 1973. James Mills, in the Underground Empire, cites a DEA intelligence report as stating that Matta had financed the coup d'etat in 1978 that installed his partner in the drug business, General Policarpo Paz Garcia as "President" of Honduras.
Matta was also the owner of SETCO Air, the principal air transport company used the by Contras to haul fuel and arms to their camps, according to the US Senate Subcommittee report "Drugs, Law Enforcement, and Foreign Policy", an investigation of Oliver North's clandestine Iran-Contra drugs for arms swap. Furthermore, the report notes he was paid for this service by the US under a two year contract despite already being well known to the DEA as an important player in narcotics smuggling.
The DEA accused him of ordering the assassination of DEA member Enrique Camarena in Mexico. The DEA had tried several times to kidnap him according to Christopher Pyle in his book, Extradition, Politics, and Human Rights (page 282). On April 5, 1988, a group of 60 Cobras, the military's special forces unit, seized Matta as he returned home. He was immediately turned over the US Marshals, where he was handcuffed, hooded, and driven to the Tegucigalpa airport and flown to Miami.
Forced extradition; illegal.
Then Porfirio Lobo Sosa and Juan Orlando Hernandez flew to the United States for an emergency meeting with high level Homeland Security people. That was January 18, 2012. On January 19, 2012, Congress held a late night closed door session where a bill to modify article 102 to permit the extradition of Hondurans to countries with which the executive branch has negotiated an extradition treaty was introduced, voted on, and passed without further discussion. Did I mention the text of the bill was not revealed outside of Congress "for security reasons".
So on January 19th of this year, at the tail end of the second congressional session, this constitutional reform was introduced debated and passed all within a few hours. Six days later, the third session of this Congress began on January 25. This bill was brought up in a closed session, debated, and approved that evening.
So Juan Orlando Hernandez took six days total to modify the constitution, holding votes in two sequent sessions of Congress. While that accelerated process does fulfill the letter of the law, it clearly thwarts the intention of the writers of the Constitution, who wanted to encourage public discussion of the bill between its initial and second vote.
Marvin Ponce, of the UD Party, says the bill's language and origin are foreign.
said Ponce. Remember that secretive flight to the US by Lobo Sosa and Hernandez the day before its introduction?
January 27 that constitutional amendment (Decreto 02-2012) was published in La Gaceta (El Heraldo called it "at the speed of lightning") and became law and we got to read it for the first time. Extradition is permitted if the crime involved is one of drugs, terrorism, or organized crime.
Not too shabby if you're a political operative bent on having your way, but hardly transparent, democratic, or promoting of national debate.
Article 373 of the Honduran constitution, as clarified in 1986 by Decree 169-86, states that any constitutional amendment must be approved in two sequent Congressional sessions. The idea is that there be adequate time to publicize and debate the changes, both among members of Congress and the informed public. I doubt, however, that the framers of the constitution ever envisioned that those two sequent sessions would be literally six days apart, and that the Congressional session might be closed, and the vote secret, as has frequently been the case in the Congress as administered by Juan Orlando Hernandez.
Until last Thursday night, Honduras had a constitution that prohibited extradition. This prohibition was enshrined in Article 102 of the constitution. It states that no Honduran may be forcibly expatriated. It was clearly violated in 2009 with the military's expatriation of Manuel Zelaya to Costa Rica, officially whitewashed by the current Honduran Supreme Court.
But it was also violated back in 1988 with the forced extradition of Juan Ramon Matta Ballesteros from Tegucigalpa to the United States. The military was involved in this extradition as well. Matta was a suspected member of the Medellin drug cartel living in Tegucigalpa. He had been known to the DEA since 1973. James Mills, in the Underground Empire, cites a DEA intelligence report as stating that Matta had financed the coup d'etat in 1978 that installed his partner in the drug business, General Policarpo Paz Garcia as "President" of Honduras.
Matta was also the owner of SETCO Air, the principal air transport company used the by Contras to haul fuel and arms to their camps, according to the US Senate Subcommittee report "Drugs, Law Enforcement, and Foreign Policy", an investigation of Oliver North's clandestine Iran-Contra drugs for arms swap. Furthermore, the report notes he was paid for this service by the US under a two year contract despite already being well known to the DEA as an important player in narcotics smuggling.
The DEA accused him of ordering the assassination of DEA member Enrique Camarena in Mexico. The DEA had tried several times to kidnap him according to Christopher Pyle in his book, Extradition, Politics, and Human Rights (page 282). On April 5, 1988, a group of 60 Cobras, the military's special forces unit, seized Matta as he returned home. He was immediately turned over the US Marshals, where he was handcuffed, hooded, and driven to the Tegucigalpa airport and flown to Miami.
Forced extradition; illegal.
Then Porfirio Lobo Sosa and Juan Orlando Hernandez flew to the United States for an emergency meeting with high level Homeland Security people. That was January 18, 2012. On January 19, 2012, Congress held a late night closed door session where a bill to modify article 102 to permit the extradition of Hondurans to countries with which the executive branch has negotiated an extradition treaty was introduced, voted on, and passed without further discussion. Did I mention the text of the bill was not revealed outside of Congress "for security reasons".
So on January 19th of this year, at the tail end of the second congressional session, this constitutional reform was introduced debated and passed all within a few hours. Six days later, the third session of this Congress began on January 25. This bill was brought up in a closed session, debated, and approved that evening.
So Juan Orlando Hernandez took six days total to modify the constitution, holding votes in two sequent sessions of Congress. While that accelerated process does fulfill the letter of the law, it clearly thwarts the intention of the writers of the Constitution, who wanted to encourage public discussion of the bill between its initial and second vote.
Marvin Ponce, of the UD Party, says the bill's language and origin are foreign.
"This is a law logically which comes more from outside than inside,"
said Ponce. Remember that secretive flight to the US by Lobo Sosa and Hernandez the day before its introduction?
January 27 that constitutional amendment (Decreto 02-2012) was published in La Gaceta (El Heraldo called it "at the speed of lightning") and became law and we got to read it for the first time. Extradition is permitted if the crime involved is one of drugs, terrorism, or organized crime.
Not too shabby if you're a political operative bent on having your way, but hardly transparent, democratic, or promoting of national debate.
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