The National Party has lost 4 votes to elect its slate of proposed candidates for the Honduran Supreme Court, and yet, proposes to do a fifth vote today on the same slate of candidates. At least for the moment, the two party system in Honduras is finally breaking down, and neither the Liberal, nor the National Party's are adapting to the existence of an opposition.
The National Party will try for a fifth time today to force the Honduran Congress to elect its slate of 7 candidates to the Supreme Court. It negotiated this slate with its rival Liberal Party, but there's ample evidence in the vote tallies that Liberal Party members are defecting and not voting for the entire slate, especially if you believe that the bribed candidates from our previous post voted for the official slate of candidates.
Last night in the fourth round of voting, 5 candidates hit 85 votes, one shy of the number of votes needed to elect the candidate to the court. Two received 84 votes. One received 83 votes. So its clear that its not just the Libre, PAC, and PINU members holding up the election of justices, as the Congressional leadership wants us to believe. At least two of the people counting the votes last night: Eduardo
Coto and Jenny Murillo, have been named as having received bribes.
PAC has offered to negotiate a solution, but the National Party leadership continues to try and impose its will, with the help of the Liberal Party. At stake is which party, Liberal or National, controls the Supreme Court. All of the current nominees are members of either the National or Liberal Parties. None are members of PAC or Libre or PINU. PAC is making the argument that justices should be selected not based on party affiliation, but rather on which would be best for the country. So far the National Party doesn't agree.
Showing posts with label National Party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label National Party. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
Monday, February 1, 2016
Third Round of Voting for Supreme Court Underway
Something historic is going on in the Honduran Congress. Today they are trying for the third time to elect the remaining seven justices of the Supreme Court. The first round of voting yielded eight elected justices, five affiliated with the Liberal Party, one without party affiliation, and two affiliated with the National Party. Mauricio Oliva tried to convene Congress the next day to elect the other seven justices, but failed because PAC and Libre declined to participate in the election, so no candidate could get 86 votes.
Over the weekend, all of the parties met to try and reach some kind of accommodation, but both the National and Liberal Parties are sticking with a partitioning of court membership allocated to only those two parties, where party affiliation is more important that the candidate's qualifications or independence. This is the status quo. This is how these two parties have conducted the Supreme Court appointments since 1982 when the Honduran constitution was enacted. However, at least as of last Friday both PAC and Libre were rejecting the party quota system being argued by the two older parties. Officially as of this morning there was no acknowledged agreement, though the Honduran press reported that PAC was considering a partitioning of the Supreme Court that included candidates they could support. There are no PAC or Libre candidates in the pool of 37 from which the selection must be made, because the Nominating committee eliminated them and divided the slate of nominations between the National and Liberal party affiliated candidates.
In the voting today, Libre issued a communique in which it rejected the negotiations for the partitioning of the Supreme Court by party, and instead proposed a series of referenda and plebiscites, as well as approval of a suite of laws. If Libre is able to maintain party discipline, its Congressional bench will cast no votes today.
Unlike Libre which officially adopted the position of not voting for any of the candidates, PAC had identified a slate of 16 candidates it considered qualified, of which one was elected in the first round of voting. National Party operatives felt there was still a possibility of an agreement with PAC over a partitioning of the remaining justices, but officially, PAC said nothing publicly.
The voting is underway as I write this.
Over the weekend, all of the parties met to try and reach some kind of accommodation, but both the National and Liberal Parties are sticking with a partitioning of court membership allocated to only those two parties, where party affiliation is more important that the candidate's qualifications or independence. This is the status quo. This is how these two parties have conducted the Supreme Court appointments since 1982 when the Honduran constitution was enacted. However, at least as of last Friday both PAC and Libre were rejecting the party quota system being argued by the two older parties. Officially as of this morning there was no acknowledged agreement, though the Honduran press reported that PAC was considering a partitioning of the Supreme Court that included candidates they could support. There are no PAC or Libre candidates in the pool of 37 from which the selection must be made, because the Nominating committee eliminated them and divided the slate of nominations between the National and Liberal party affiliated candidates.
In the voting today, Libre issued a communique in which it rejected the negotiations for the partitioning of the Supreme Court by party, and instead proposed a series of referenda and plebiscites, as well as approval of a suite of laws. If Libre is able to maintain party discipline, its Congressional bench will cast no votes today.
Unlike Libre which officially adopted the position of not voting for any of the candidates, PAC had identified a slate of 16 candidates it considered qualified, of which one was elected in the first round of voting. National Party operatives felt there was still a possibility of an agreement with PAC over a partitioning of the remaining justices, but officially, PAC said nothing publicly.
The voting is underway as I write this.
Friday, October 23, 2015
Yoro Mayors Lead Drug Gangs
Since 2014 three different Mayors in the Honduran department of Yoro have been identified as criminals participating in murder for hire and the drug trade in Honduras.
The Department of Yoro, readers will remember, is important to the Zetas. It's where their drug planes historically have landed, both in clandestine airstrips and along established paved roads.
In July 2014, the Mayor of the town of Yoro, Arnulfo Urbina Soto, was arrested for drug trafficking, murder, rape, money laundering, and the possession of illegal weapons. After a two year long investigation, the National Police alleged that Urbina Soto led a drug trafficking gang of 37 people that had been operating at least since 2009. The National Police allege that Urbina Soto expropriated land in the small towns of Rio Nance and Rio Abajo, Locomapa, Yoro and converted them to landing strips for drug planes.
At the time of his arrest Urbina Soto, in addition to being Mayor, was a National Party operative, having coordinated the Presidential campaign of Juan Orlando Hernandez in 2013 in Yoro. His daughter, Diana, is a member of the Honduran Congress.
Urbina Soto is not alone.
In August 2015 the Fuerza de Seguridad Interinstitutional (FUSINA) went to Jocon, Yoro, to arrest members of Los Solis, wanted for being hit men, murderers, and cattle thieves, among other crimes. They captured five alleged members of Los Solis, but failed to capture the alleged leader, Mayor Santos Gabriel Elvir Arteaga. Los Solis was established around 2000 by the Solis family, but when Elvir Arteaga became Mayor in 2009 he also gained control of Los Solis, according to Police, and only two Solis family members are thought to be still part of the group. Mayor Santos Elvir is a member of the Liberal Party and still at large.
Thursday the Mayor of Sulaco, Yoro, was arrested on charges of homicide, murder, illicit association, and carrying illegal weapons. Mayor José Adalid Gonzalez Morales is alleged to be the leader of Los Banegas, a group operating in and around Sulaco, Yoro, consisting of 30-40 members. They are wanted for cattle theft, extortion, robbing buses and trucks, murder, and distribution of narcotics in Sulaco. The investigation into Gonzales Morales began three months ago when police arrested seven members of the group.
Los Banegas are alleged to have killed eight people in and around Sulaco. Gonzalez Morales is accused of killing peasant activist Secundino Orellana, who previously had been arrested and shot during peasant land protests.
In the 2013 elections, Gonzales Morales, a member of the National Party, received a verbal endorsement at a National Party rally by then Presidential Candidate Juan Orlando Hernandez, who called him "one of the best Mayors Honduras has ever had."
The Department of Yoro, readers will remember, is important to the Zetas. It's where their drug planes historically have landed, both in clandestine airstrips and along established paved roads.
In July 2014, the Mayor of the town of Yoro, Arnulfo Urbina Soto, was arrested for drug trafficking, murder, rape, money laundering, and the possession of illegal weapons. After a two year long investigation, the National Police alleged that Urbina Soto led a drug trafficking gang of 37 people that had been operating at least since 2009. The National Police allege that Urbina Soto expropriated land in the small towns of Rio Nance and Rio Abajo, Locomapa, Yoro and converted them to landing strips for drug planes.
At the time of his arrest Urbina Soto, in addition to being Mayor, was a National Party operative, having coordinated the Presidential campaign of Juan Orlando Hernandez in 2013 in Yoro. His daughter, Diana, is a member of the Honduran Congress.
Urbina Soto is not alone.
In August 2015 the Fuerza de Seguridad Interinstitutional (FUSINA) went to Jocon, Yoro, to arrest members of Los Solis, wanted for being hit men, murderers, and cattle thieves, among other crimes. They captured five alleged members of Los Solis, but failed to capture the alleged leader, Mayor Santos Gabriel Elvir Arteaga. Los Solis was established around 2000 by the Solis family, but when Elvir Arteaga became Mayor in 2009 he also gained control of Los Solis, according to Police, and only two Solis family members are thought to be still part of the group. Mayor Santos Elvir is a member of the Liberal Party and still at large.
Thursday the Mayor of Sulaco, Yoro, was arrested on charges of homicide, murder, illicit association, and carrying illegal weapons. Mayor José Adalid Gonzalez Morales is alleged to be the leader of Los Banegas, a group operating in and around Sulaco, Yoro, consisting of 30-40 members. They are wanted for cattle theft, extortion, robbing buses and trucks, murder, and distribution of narcotics in Sulaco. The investigation into Gonzales Morales began three months ago when police arrested seven members of the group.
Los Banegas are alleged to have killed eight people in and around Sulaco. Gonzalez Morales is accused of killing peasant activist Secundino Orellana, who previously had been arrested and shot during peasant land protests.
In the 2013 elections, Gonzales Morales, a member of the National Party, received a verbal endorsement at a National Party rally by then Presidential Candidate Juan Orlando Hernandez, who called him "one of the best Mayors Honduras has ever had."
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Congressional Maneuvers
On the same day on which the National Party Congressional delegation announced it will let Juan Orlando Hernandez choose its Congressional leadership, the Congressional delegations of the Anti-Corruption Party, LIBRE, and PINU signed an accord to work together on certain projects in Congress.
Wilmer Velasquez, a National Party Member elected to Congress in November, told the Honduran press that the National Party Congressional Delegation had met and decided to let Juan Orlando Hernandez select its candidates for Congressional leadership.
This is supposed to be a sign of unity, though he admitted there were several names being floated for president of Congress. Velasquez told the press that Hernandez was in the best position to choose who was best for Honduras.
Any nominees will still have to gain a majority of the votes of all Congress members.
At the same time, the Congressional delegations of the Partido Anticorrupción (PAC), Libertad y Refundacion (LIBRE), and Partido Innovación y Unidad (PINU) came to a meeting organized by PAC's presidential candidate, Salvador Nasralla, and agreed to work together to achieve certain goals. The full pact can be read here.
Election law changes are one of these goals. The allied parties will seek to mandate electronic voting to disrupt the traditional forms of election fraud.
Also among the agreed-upon goals:
This does not mean they will always be working as a bloc with a combined roster of 51 members of Congress, but that they will work together on the specific issues agreed upon.
Notably missing from either announcement was the Liberal Party, which declined to participate in the PAC sponsored meeting.
Yani Rosenthal, current head of the Liberal Party Congressional Delegation (until January 20) said the party was between a rock and a hard place. He faulted internal party decisions for the Liberal Party not having a clear position on the new Congressional leadership, citing Mauricio Villeda's call ordering Liberal Party Congressional Delegates not to participate in Congressional leadership discussions.
Villeda's order came after twelve party members had held conversations with Juan Orlando Hernandez on the topic. Rosenthal said that there were problems for the party no matter what it does. If they ally with the National Party in Congress, for many that would be a death knell for the party. An alliance that includes LIBRE would mean joining with a party that damaged the Liberal Party. Another possibility would be to not ally with any party, but according to Rosenthal that, like all the other possibilities, would mean rejecting some of the current party values in order to maintain viability as a political party.
Separately, Manuel Zelaya Rosales announced he was stepping down as coordinator of LIBRE as part of the separation of the Frente Nacional de Resistencia and LIBRE. He has occupied this office since July 2010. Zelaya will remain part of the Frente, and is part of LIBRE's new Congressional Delegation.
All of these moves are crystallizing the new political landscape in Honduras, against a background of furious legislative action by the current, National-party dominated, lame-duck congress, intended to give Juan Orlando Hernández as much as possible before he faces a Congress that will not automatically do what he wants.
Wilmer Velasquez, a National Party Member elected to Congress in November, told the Honduran press that the National Party Congressional Delegation had met and decided to let Juan Orlando Hernandez select its candidates for Congressional leadership.
This is supposed to be a sign of unity, though he admitted there were several names being floated for president of Congress. Velasquez told the press that Hernandez was in the best position to choose who was best for Honduras.
Any nominees will still have to gain a majority of the votes of all Congress members.
At the same time, the Congressional delegations of the Partido Anticorrupción (PAC), Libertad y Refundacion (LIBRE), and Partido Innovación y Unidad (PINU) came to a meeting organized by PAC's presidential candidate, Salvador Nasralla, and agreed to work together to achieve certain goals. The full pact can be read here.
Election law changes are one of these goals. The allied parties will seek to mandate electronic voting to disrupt the traditional forms of election fraud.
Also among the agreed-upon goals:
- a rollback of the tax package the current Congress just put into effect
- try to regulate the salaries of government employees
- work to democratize the Congressional rules and reform the election law
- an overhaul the anti-corruption law
This does not mean they will always be working as a bloc with a combined roster of 51 members of Congress, but that they will work together on the specific issues agreed upon.
Notably missing from either announcement was the Liberal Party, which declined to participate in the PAC sponsored meeting.
Yani Rosenthal, current head of the Liberal Party Congressional Delegation (until January 20) said the party was between a rock and a hard place. He faulted internal party decisions for the Liberal Party not having a clear position on the new Congressional leadership, citing Mauricio Villeda's call ordering Liberal Party Congressional Delegates not to participate in Congressional leadership discussions.
Villeda's order came after twelve party members had held conversations with Juan Orlando Hernandez on the topic. Rosenthal said that there were problems for the party no matter what it does. If they ally with the National Party in Congress, for many that would be a death knell for the party. An alliance that includes LIBRE would mean joining with a party that damaged the Liberal Party. Another possibility would be to not ally with any party, but according to Rosenthal that, like all the other possibilities, would mean rejecting some of the current party values in order to maintain viability as a political party.
Separately, Manuel Zelaya Rosales announced he was stepping down as coordinator of LIBRE as part of the separation of the Frente Nacional de Resistencia and LIBRE. He has occupied this office since July 2010. Zelaya will remain part of the Frente, and is part of LIBRE's new Congressional Delegation.
All of these moves are crystallizing the new political landscape in Honduras, against a background of furious legislative action by the current, National-party dominated, lame-duck congress, intended to give Juan Orlando Hernández as much as possible before he faces a Congress that will not automatically do what he wants.
Monday, December 23, 2013
New Taxes, Old Economic Problems
The lame duck Honduran Congress is now piling on taxes to try and make up for the last four years of spending as the Lobo Sosa administration prepares to give way to the presidency of Juan Orlando Hernández.
On Saturday, December 21, the Congress passed a new, extensive series of taxes and rule changes designed to bring up to 4000 million lempiras ($200 million) in new revenue to the government over the next year. The same measure imposes restrictions on the transfer of income between government branches that is expected to bring about a further 12000 million lempiras ($600 million) in savings.
Everyone will pay a new "special contribution" of 3% on all sales. This is on top of the already existing sales tax of 12%.
All customs tax exemptions (commonly used by religious institutions, businesses aimed at tourism, newspapers, and power generation companies) are cancelled. Telephone and cable television service will be subject to the 15% tax, but internet service will continue to be taxed at 12%.
Everyone except those given an exemption under legislation called the Regímenes Especiales de Importación y Turismo will pay a further 5% tax on taxable income greater than 1 million lempiras ($50,000).
Consumption taxes are in general regressive-- they disproportionately affect the poorest members of a population. In addition to the general impact that the Honduran poor will experience from the added special contribution tax, other aspects of the new law will sharply affect their use of energy.
Some consumers receive a subsidy on their electric service. Until now, that subsidy has been for those who consume less than 150 kw/month. From today forward, the subsidy will only be for those who consume 75 kw/month or less.
Gasoline will be taxed a further 5.3 lempiras/gallon ($0.25/gallon). The income is supposed to be earmarked for infrastructure and social welfare projects.
But the poor are not targeted by the new sweeping tax increases: property owners will see sharp increases in taxation as well.
The central government will retain 10% of the gains from the purchase or sale of property, bonds, rights, and titles as a capital gains tax. Dividends will be taxed at 10% as well.
Consumption and property transfer taxes make sense as policy because Honduras has a poor record of tax collection on basic income tax. But that doesn't mean income tax rates were left alone, either.
Foreign companies will pay a tax of 10% on gross income in Honduras. Honduran companies will pay 1.5% on their gross income over 3 million lempiras ($150,000) except if their business is selling cement, services given to the government, pharmaceuticals for human consumption, petroleum products, or supplies for baking, which will pay a tax of 0.75%.
The tax law also contemplates retaining more money for the central government at the expense of entities it owes fixed levels of funding.
The new law freezes the 2014 budget for the central government at 2013 levels. But it also changes how amounts specified in the constitution for other government entities, such as municipal governments and the National Autonomous University, are calculated. Some kinds of income that previously counted in calculating the amounts to transfer will be exempt from being counted now. This means that all dependencies specified as receiving a fixed percent of the government income will receive a budget cut, while the central government will retain more.
On top of all this, there is yet another revision to the security tax.
This revision extends the security tax to cover previously exempt bank accounts with deposits under 120,000 lempiras. Now, all savings and checking accounts will be taxed. COHEP, one of the principal business organizations in the country, warns that this might lead to capital flight.
So why is Congress doing this now?
Part of the answer is that Honduras simply has to find more revenue or the government cannot continue. And some of the answer is partisan politics, with a hand-off of government from one National Party president to another, something that has never happened since the new Honduran constitution was set in place in the 1980s. Even with the new taxes and savings envisioned under this law, it will not close the fiscal deficit under which the government operates.
Right now the lame duck Congress has enough National Party members to pass anything they want, short of a constitutional amendment. The new Congress might not be so amenable. The National Party will not have sufficient representation to do what it wants. It will need to make alliances with other parties in order to enact legislation, making laws like this one difficult to pass.
Most of the Liberal Party members in the present Congress opposed the new taxes, and suggested that the press headline their coverage "National Party passes new taxes". The Liberal membership in the incoming Congress will be joined by LIBRE and PAC contingents that can also be expected to be less inclined to automatically agree with the ruling party's legislative direction
The Lobo Sosa government used 1.4 billion dollars in borrowing to make ends meet this year. Under the new tax law's projections, the increases will, at best, cover half of that.
It will be up to the next government to figure out how to cover the other half, while improving actual tax collection enough to cover those projections. And that is presumably why, along with changes in the leadership of the police and military, the first choices for government offices made by Juan Orlando Hernández included a new head of the Dirección Ejecutivo de Ingresos (Executive Office of Income), Miriam Guzman, reportedly already at work.
On Saturday, December 21, the Congress passed a new, extensive series of taxes and rule changes designed to bring up to 4000 million lempiras ($200 million) in new revenue to the government over the next year. The same measure imposes restrictions on the transfer of income between government branches that is expected to bring about a further 12000 million lempiras ($600 million) in savings.
Everyone will pay a new "special contribution" of 3% on all sales. This is on top of the already existing sales tax of 12%.
All customs tax exemptions (commonly used by religious institutions, businesses aimed at tourism, newspapers, and power generation companies) are cancelled. Telephone and cable television service will be subject to the 15% tax, but internet service will continue to be taxed at 12%.
Everyone except those given an exemption under legislation called the Regímenes Especiales de Importación y Turismo will pay a further 5% tax on taxable income greater than 1 million lempiras ($50,000).
Consumption taxes are in general regressive-- they disproportionately affect the poorest members of a population. In addition to the general impact that the Honduran poor will experience from the added special contribution tax, other aspects of the new law will sharply affect their use of energy.
Some consumers receive a subsidy on their electric service. Until now, that subsidy has been for those who consume less than 150 kw/month. From today forward, the subsidy will only be for those who consume 75 kw/month or less.
Gasoline will be taxed a further 5.3 lempiras/gallon ($0.25/gallon). The income is supposed to be earmarked for infrastructure and social welfare projects.
But the poor are not targeted by the new sweeping tax increases: property owners will see sharp increases in taxation as well.
The central government will retain 10% of the gains from the purchase or sale of property, bonds, rights, and titles as a capital gains tax. Dividends will be taxed at 10% as well.
Consumption and property transfer taxes make sense as policy because Honduras has a poor record of tax collection on basic income tax. But that doesn't mean income tax rates were left alone, either.
Foreign companies will pay a tax of 10% on gross income in Honduras. Honduran companies will pay 1.5% on their gross income over 3 million lempiras ($150,000) except if their business is selling cement, services given to the government, pharmaceuticals for human consumption, petroleum products, or supplies for baking, which will pay a tax of 0.75%.
The tax law also contemplates retaining more money for the central government at the expense of entities it owes fixed levels of funding.
The new law freezes the 2014 budget for the central government at 2013 levels. But it also changes how amounts specified in the constitution for other government entities, such as municipal governments and the National Autonomous University, are calculated. Some kinds of income that previously counted in calculating the amounts to transfer will be exempt from being counted now. This means that all dependencies specified as receiving a fixed percent of the government income will receive a budget cut, while the central government will retain more.
On top of all this, there is yet another revision to the security tax.
This revision extends the security tax to cover previously exempt bank accounts with deposits under 120,000 lempiras. Now, all savings and checking accounts will be taxed. COHEP, one of the principal business organizations in the country, warns that this might lead to capital flight.
So why is Congress doing this now?
Part of the answer is that Honduras simply has to find more revenue or the government cannot continue. And some of the answer is partisan politics, with a hand-off of government from one National Party president to another, something that has never happened since the new Honduran constitution was set in place in the 1980s. Even with the new taxes and savings envisioned under this law, it will not close the fiscal deficit under which the government operates.
Right now the lame duck Congress has enough National Party members to pass anything they want, short of a constitutional amendment. The new Congress might not be so amenable. The National Party will not have sufficient representation to do what it wants. It will need to make alliances with other parties in order to enact legislation, making laws like this one difficult to pass.
Most of the Liberal Party members in the present Congress opposed the new taxes, and suggested that the press headline their coverage "National Party passes new taxes". The Liberal membership in the incoming Congress will be joined by LIBRE and PAC contingents that can also be expected to be less inclined to automatically agree with the ruling party's legislative direction
The Lobo Sosa government used 1.4 billion dollars in borrowing to make ends meet this year. Under the new tax law's projections, the increases will, at best, cover half of that.
It will be up to the next government to figure out how to cover the other half, while improving actual tax collection enough to cover those projections. And that is presumably why, along with changes in the leadership of the police and military, the first choices for government offices made by Juan Orlando Hernández included a new head of the Dirección Ejecutivo de Ingresos (Executive Office of Income), Miriam Guzman, reportedly already at work.
Friday, September 13, 2013
Where are undecided voters likely to move?
Honduran presidential election polling has settled into a pretty clear pattern.
That has LIBRE candidate Xiomara Castro in the lead, with National Party candidate Juan Orlando Hernández close, but always behind.
Meanwhile, voters disinterested in any of the candidates running form anywhere from 22% to 31%. If you add decline to state to none of the above in the poll with the largest none of the above totals-- a July poll by Paradigma-- almost half of those polled (48.9%) are not saying they have committed to any of the candidates running.
And that brings the question: can we predict who probably will benefit from movement by those voters?
Our answer: no, we cannot. Paradigma and CESPAD, two of the polling sources, have no previous track record in Honduras for us to use to assess how it might do. Even if there was a wealth of prior polling, none of it would come from the first election after a coup d'etat that tore apart one of the traditional parties, and ushered in two new, and apparently reasonably popular, new parties.
But there are others who do think they can predict what will happen in the coming election. The Economist Intelligence Unit posted a note on the election September 12 (h/t Bloggings by Boz, who has his own post on the way the polling is shaping up, for bringing this to our attention).
The Economist/Intelligence Unit doesn't discuss all the polls we have summarized. We continue to caution that there are clear differences between polling agencies which suggest the best way to assess poll data is across time by an individual pollster.
But the thing we find most surprising is that despite the low level of absolute support for individual candidates, the tightness of the race between the top two candidates, and the large block declaring no preference or absolutely not in favor of any of the existing candidates, The Economist/Intelligence Unit analysis projects a final winner:
Without any explanation of why they think more voters currently registered as undecided will turn to the Partido Nacional, we find ourselves troubled by this projection. We have discussed privately a number of scenarios that we can see happening-- but predicting how the undecideds will break seems, to us at any rate, without basis.
CESPAD-- the latest source of polling data to become available-- provides an illustrative example of how complicated such prediction is in Honduras, this year.
Let's start with how voters polled feel about the Partido Nacional-- which currently controls the presidency (under Porfirio Lobo Sosa) and the Congress (for much of the Lobo Sosa presidency, led by Juan Orlando Hernández). In a word: the people are not satisfied. Since February 2012, CESPAD has found that a majority of the people say that the current president is making things worse (47%) or has no effect on the country's problems (38%). Less than 10% said his administration was helping improve conditions.
Is it unfair of us, then, to doubt that the Partido Nacional is going to attract undecided voters?
CESPAD actually gives us a fascinating look at which voters are still undecided (or uninterested in any of the actual candidates) by party affiliation. (We will spend another post just on this topic. For now, though, we simply want to trace who might be expected to shift to Juan Orlando Hernández.)
About 17% of the Liberal Party members; about 21% of the Partido Nacional members; 11% of Anti-Corruption party members; and only 4% of LIBRE members, report being undecided. So where would the undecided voters that might go Partido Nacional come from?
Liberal Party voters not supporting their own party's candidate are overwhelmingly planning to vote LIBRE (about half of these rogue voters). Unless we assume that the undecided voters represent a much more conservative group within the Liberal Party, it is hard to imagine that 17% of voters breaking for Juan Orlando Hernández. The actual candidate of the Liberal Party represents the more conservative wing of that party, so we think it is unlikely these undecideds feel the Liberal candidate is not conservative enough, which would be the motivation to vote PN. If they cannot find it possible to vote LIBRE, there are other somewhat progressive options available. Or they can reject the entire system and vote Anti-Corruption Party-- as over 6% of Liberal Party Members are already planning to do.
The tiny percentage of LIBRE members who are not saying they will vote for Xiomara Castro indicate preferences either for the Liberal Party, or for an even more progressive minority party. Even if we thought all the undecided LIBRE voters were closet law-and-order pro-business conservatives, that would be a minuscule addition to Partido Nacional rolls.
Salvador Nasralla has support from 82% of the party he founded. Only 1% of the party members plan to vote Partido Nacional-- against about 3% each for the Liberal Party and LIBRE. Again, it seems highly unlikely that the 11% undecided/no preference party members think the Partido Nacional is their best choice-- the whole basis of the Anti-Corruption Party is that present politicians are too corrupt-- and the present politics of Honduras is dominated by the PN, and until recently, had as its most effective leader, Juan Orlando Hernández, as head of Congress.
That leaves us with undecided/no preference voters who said they were members of the Partido Nacional itself. This is a substantial number of potential voters-- 21% of party members. Presumably, what The Economist/Intelligence Unit is expecting is that these voters will settle for their party candidate in the end. Yet if we assume their reluctance to state a preference stems from a lack of enthusiasm for their party's candidate, we might consider whether they will follow the lead of the more than 20% of their fellow party members who have decided to vote for someone else. Here, the main beneficiary has been Nasralla, who has support from about 9% of PN members. Nasralla's Anti-Corruption Party is not particularly progressive/liberal in its politics; it is pro-business and solidly Honduran in its identity. The anti-crime theme of Nasralla's campaign is familiar PN policy. It is worth noting that rogue PN voters support Xiomara Castro in almost as high numbers-- suggesting some of the dissatisfied PN voters may be more progressive.
To sum up, we would echo what CESPAD analysts wrote:
CESPAD doesn't offer much support for a claim that the Partido Nacional has support to gain:
That seems to us to caution against assuming that the PN has some elasticity to count on. We won't be surprised if Juan Orlando Hernández is declared the winner come election day; but we don't think the data allow for anyone to actually say this is an evident outcome to expect.
That has LIBRE candidate Xiomara Castro in the lead, with National Party candidate Juan Orlando Hernández close, but always behind.
Meanwhile, voters disinterested in any of the candidates running form anywhere from 22% to 31%. If you add decline to state to none of the above in the poll with the largest none of the above totals-- a July poll by Paradigma-- almost half of those polled (48.9%) are not saying they have committed to any of the candidates running.
And that brings the question: can we predict who probably will benefit from movement by those voters?
Our answer: no, we cannot. Paradigma and CESPAD, two of the polling sources, have no previous track record in Honduras for us to use to assess how it might do. Even if there was a wealth of prior polling, none of it would come from the first election after a coup d'etat that tore apart one of the traditional parties, and ushered in two new, and apparently reasonably popular, new parties.
But there are others who do think they can predict what will happen in the coming election. The Economist Intelligence Unit posted a note on the election September 12 (h/t Bloggings by Boz, who has his own post on the way the polling is shaping up, for bringing this to our attention).
The Economist/Intelligence Unit doesn't discuss all the polls we have summarized. We continue to caution that there are clear differences between polling agencies which suggest the best way to assess poll data is across time by an individual pollster.
But the thing we find most surprising is that despite the low level of absolute support for individual candidates, the tightness of the race between the top two candidates, and the large block declaring no preference or absolutely not in favor of any of the existing candidates, The Economist/Intelligence Unit analysis projects a final winner:
We maintain our forecast that Mr Hernández will win the November election as the PN Is likely to gain a larger share of the undecided vote on polling day. However, a low turnout could still result in a LIBRE victory.
Without any explanation of why they think more voters currently registered as undecided will turn to the Partido Nacional, we find ourselves troubled by this projection. We have discussed privately a number of scenarios that we can see happening-- but predicting how the undecideds will break seems, to us at any rate, without basis.
CESPAD-- the latest source of polling data to become available-- provides an illustrative example of how complicated such prediction is in Honduras, this year.
Let's start with how voters polled feel about the Partido Nacional-- which currently controls the presidency (under Porfirio Lobo Sosa) and the Congress (for much of the Lobo Sosa presidency, led by Juan Orlando Hernández). In a word: the people are not satisfied. Since February 2012, CESPAD has found that a majority of the people say that the current president is making things worse (47%) or has no effect on the country's problems (38%). Less than 10% said his administration was helping improve conditions.
Is it unfair of us, then, to doubt that the Partido Nacional is going to attract undecided voters?
CESPAD actually gives us a fascinating look at which voters are still undecided (or uninterested in any of the actual candidates) by party affiliation. (We will spend another post just on this topic. For now, though, we simply want to trace who might be expected to shift to Juan Orlando Hernández.)
About 17% of the Liberal Party members; about 21% of the Partido Nacional members; 11% of Anti-Corruption party members; and only 4% of LIBRE members, report being undecided. So where would the undecided voters that might go Partido Nacional come from?
Liberal Party voters not supporting their own party's candidate are overwhelmingly planning to vote LIBRE (about half of these rogue voters). Unless we assume that the undecided voters represent a much more conservative group within the Liberal Party, it is hard to imagine that 17% of voters breaking for Juan Orlando Hernández. The actual candidate of the Liberal Party represents the more conservative wing of that party, so we think it is unlikely these undecideds feel the Liberal candidate is not conservative enough, which would be the motivation to vote PN. If they cannot find it possible to vote LIBRE, there are other somewhat progressive options available. Or they can reject the entire system and vote Anti-Corruption Party-- as over 6% of Liberal Party Members are already planning to do.
The tiny percentage of LIBRE members who are not saying they will vote for Xiomara Castro indicate preferences either for the Liberal Party, or for an even more progressive minority party. Even if we thought all the undecided LIBRE voters were closet law-and-order pro-business conservatives, that would be a minuscule addition to Partido Nacional rolls.
Salvador Nasralla has support from 82% of the party he founded. Only 1% of the party members plan to vote Partido Nacional-- against about 3% each for the Liberal Party and LIBRE. Again, it seems highly unlikely that the 11% undecided/no preference party members think the Partido Nacional is their best choice-- the whole basis of the Anti-Corruption Party is that present politicians are too corrupt-- and the present politics of Honduras is dominated by the PN, and until recently, had as its most effective leader, Juan Orlando Hernández, as head of Congress.
That leaves us with undecided/no preference voters who said they were members of the Partido Nacional itself. This is a substantial number of potential voters-- 21% of party members. Presumably, what The Economist/Intelligence Unit is expecting is that these voters will settle for their party candidate in the end. Yet if we assume their reluctance to state a preference stems from a lack of enthusiasm for their party's candidate, we might consider whether they will follow the lead of the more than 20% of their fellow party members who have decided to vote for someone else. Here, the main beneficiary has been Nasralla, who has support from about 9% of PN members. Nasralla's Anti-Corruption Party is not particularly progressive/liberal in its politics; it is pro-business and solidly Honduran in its identity. The anti-crime theme of Nasralla's campaign is familiar PN policy. It is worth noting that rogue PN voters support Xiomara Castro in almost as high numbers-- suggesting some of the dissatisfied PN voters may be more progressive.
To sum up, we would echo what CESPAD analysts wrote:
The weakening of the traditional party loyalty, is tending to modify the historic balance of political forces. In the presidential candidacies there exists a clear migration of the vote of the Partido Liberal (PL) and of the Partido Nacional (PN) toward the new political movements. Xiomara Castro is the one that most attracts the vote from other parties: 23% of the Liberal vote and 8% of the Nationalist vote.
CESPAD doesn't offer much support for a claim that the Partido Nacional has support to gain:
Effectively, the electoral preferences for Xiomara Castro and Juan Orlando Hernández have grown since February of 2012 until July of 2013. Nonetheless, the pace of the growth has been greater for Xiomara Castro. Simultaneously there has been registered a growth in electoral sympathies for the LIBRE party (8 points) and a deterioration of the electoral preference for the Partido Nacional (PN) (falling 4 points). [emphasis added]
That seems to us to caution against assuming that the PN has some elasticity to count on. We won't be surprised if Juan Orlando Hernández is declared the winner come election day; but we don't think the data allow for anyone to actually say this is an evident outcome to expect.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Honduras has Two Christian Democrat Parties
The National Party in Honduras is neither leftist nor rightist, but centrist and Christian Humanist according to Ricardo Alvarez, the Party president. But what does Christian Humanism mean in the context of politics?
According to the English language Wikipedia, there are no notable organizations of Christian Humanists. Wrong. Clearly the authors of that page have never read the Spanish language page on Humanismo Cristiano, which identifies it as a catholic, and political philosophy originating in the writings of the French philosopher Jacques Maritain and the political philosophy of the Christian Democrats as a political movement. The National Party of Honduras is a member of the Organización de Demócrata Cristiana de América (ODCA), as is the Christian Democrat party (PDCH). So effectively Honduras has two Christian Democrat affiliated parties.
The ODCA's website calls the National Party's affiliation with them last August a 180 degree turn from its principles of more than a decade. So what are the new values?
The ODCA's political philosophy is presented in a document from their website called "El Nuevo Centro Humanista y Reformista (the New Humanist and Reformist Center)". which in 2008 outlined the political philosophy of the ODCA, and hence, the member parties.
First and foremost, it is conservative (so much for Alvarez's rhetoric above); with christian moral values (e.g., emphasis on the family, against abortion) and emphasizes small changes (evolution) rather than large changes (revolution). There is an emphasis on the community and a person's duties to the community, on free market economies with little regulation
The emphasis of Christian Humanism is on the creation of persons not individuals, in the community, making a world more prosperous through the "harmonic conjunction" of the market, democratic equality, and globalization to be used for the development of people. They must understand the limitations of the market in assigning resources. They must deepen democracy, increase social justice nationally and internationally. Globalization provides an opportunity to overcome poverty and equalize the inequalities in economic development. This is "positive realism". In summary, they must value a new sense of socialization and citizenship based on the market and on democracy and globalization to humanize them.
Christian Democrats must introduce values that give their citizens not only a sense of local belonging, but of belonging to the world, more liberty, equalities, equal opportunity, the setting up of a civilization of brotherhood. They must actualize the suggestions of christian humanism or whole humanism in their contract between individualism and leading. Change must be based on the possible within ordinary politics (eg, no revolutionary or rapid change), centrist, but working towards the ideal with an ethics of responsibility.
Privilege neither the market nor the state ; people's values and initiatives and interresponsibility should order the market and the state as instruments of their will. They will create a strong civil society based on mutual responsibility that not only creates a climate for economic development but also sustainable democracy. Human rights must be defended in all circumstances. They must work for respect, the basis of democracy.
They will work for sustainable development for men and women. Governments should evaluate themselves by whether or not they improve the life of individuals Parents must assume more responsibility for children's education and religious development. People should work hard, have confidence, and be responsible to others and tot individualistic like the United States.
Families are based on the couple, a man and a women where interpersonal relations are centered. Families are the locus of personhood and the party will work to promote, strengthen, respect, and protect families. Labor laws need to be family friendly.
Equality between men and women requires profound changes in the family. There needs to be a more equal division of labor between husband and wife. The Christian Democrats will propose changes to law that emphasize the equality of men and women in marriage, work, and open opportunities for women to lead politically.
Decentralization is fundamental to strengthening democracy by creating more spaces for people to participate.
But Lobo Sosa and the Nationalist Party are moving quickly to change Honduras and its laws to meet these goals, without doing the necessary social development. In that sense, the change they're introducing is just as revolutionary, in Honduras, as some of the changes Zelaya Rosales introduced.
In this way they're like the Republicans in Wisconsin. They control the government and so can push through just about any kind of change, and it doesn't matter what anyone thinks about it. So much for the Christian Democrat belief in participation. Is the National Party Christian Democrat in Name Only?
According to the English language Wikipedia, there are no notable organizations of Christian Humanists. Wrong. Clearly the authors of that page have never read the Spanish language page on Humanismo Cristiano, which identifies it as a catholic, and political philosophy originating in the writings of the French philosopher Jacques Maritain and the political philosophy of the Christian Democrats as a political movement. The National Party of Honduras is a member of the Organización de Demócrata Cristiana de América (ODCA), as is the Christian Democrat party (PDCH). So effectively Honduras has two Christian Democrat affiliated parties.
The ODCA's website calls the National Party's affiliation with them last August a 180 degree turn from its principles of more than a decade. So what are the new values?
The ODCA's political philosophy is presented in a document from their website called "El Nuevo Centro Humanista y Reformista (the New Humanist and Reformist Center)". which in 2008 outlined the political philosophy of the ODCA, and hence, the member parties.
First and foremost, it is conservative (so much for Alvarez's rhetoric above); with christian moral values (e.g., emphasis on the family, against abortion) and emphasizes small changes (evolution) rather than large changes (revolution). There is an emphasis on the community and a person's duties to the community, on free market economies with little regulation
The emphasis of Christian Humanism is on the creation of persons not individuals, in the community, making a world more prosperous through the "harmonic conjunction" of the market, democratic equality, and globalization to be used for the development of people. They must understand the limitations of the market in assigning resources. They must deepen democracy, increase social justice nationally and internationally. Globalization provides an opportunity to overcome poverty and equalize the inequalities in economic development. This is "positive realism". In summary, they must value a new sense of socialization and citizenship based on the market and on democracy and globalization to humanize them.
Christian Democrats must introduce values that give their citizens not only a sense of local belonging, but of belonging to the world, more liberty, equalities, equal opportunity, the setting up of a civilization of brotherhood. They must actualize the suggestions of christian humanism or whole humanism in their contract between individualism and leading. Change must be based on the possible within ordinary politics (eg, no revolutionary or rapid change), centrist, but working towards the ideal with an ethics of responsibility.
Privilege neither the market nor the state ; people's values and initiatives and interresponsibility should order the market and the state as instruments of their will. They will create a strong civil society based on mutual responsibility that not only creates a climate for economic development but also sustainable democracy. Human rights must be defended in all circumstances. They must work for respect, the basis of democracy.
They will work for sustainable development for men and women. Governments should evaluate themselves by whether or not they improve the life of individuals Parents must assume more responsibility for children's education and religious development. People should work hard, have confidence, and be responsible to others and tot individualistic like the United States.
Families are based on the couple, a man and a women where interpersonal relations are centered. Families are the locus of personhood and the party will work to promote, strengthen, respect, and protect families. Labor laws need to be family friendly.
Equality between men and women requires profound changes in the family. There needs to be a more equal division of labor between husband and wife. The Christian Democrats will propose changes to law that emphasize the equality of men and women in marriage, work, and open opportunities for women to lead politically.
Decentralization is fundamental to strengthening democracy by creating more spaces for people to participate.
But Lobo Sosa and the Nationalist Party are moving quickly to change Honduras and its laws to meet these goals, without doing the necessary social development. In that sense, the change they're introducing is just as revolutionary, in Honduras, as some of the changes Zelaya Rosales introduced.
In this way they're like the Republicans in Wisconsin. They control the government and so can push through just about any kind of change, and it doesn't matter what anyone thinks about it. So much for the Christian Democrat belief in participation. Is the National Party Christian Democrat in Name Only?
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