tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13386122454550977922024-03-05T17:05:47.887-08:00Honduras Culture and PoliticsNews, commentary, and analysis of current events in Honduras where cultural forms intersect with political interests, with links to the work of Honduran writers and scholars.RAJhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00097415587406899236noreply@blogger.comBlogger777125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-32292000543339359402019-10-03T17:21:00.001-07:002019-10-03T17:21:13.950-07:00Tony Hernandez Trial Day 2 - Some basic mathTestimony at Tony Hernandez's trial today included testimony from El Rojo who said he helped Tony move 140 tons of cocaine through Honduras. We don't know if those are metric tons or english tons but the math is about the same order of magnitude for both.<br />
<br />
According to a <a href="http://www.narcoticnews.com/drug-prices/cocaine/" target="_blank">website</a> that tries to keep track of cocaine prices across the country, the price is lowest in cities along our southern border, where they report Laredo, TX, Las Cruces, NM, and San Diego, CA all have the cheapest cocaine, at about $14, 500 per kilogram. At that price: <br />
<br />
140 English tons is 127, 006 kilograms of cocaine.<br />
Cocaine <a href="http://www.narcoticnews.com/drug-prices/cocaine/" target="_blank">sells</a> for a mean street price of $14, 500 per kilogram in San Diego, CA<br />
127006 kg. of cocaine at $14, 500 per kilogram is more than $1.84 billion<br />
<br />140 metric tons is 140,000 kilograms of cocaine.<br />
Cocaine sells for a mean street price of $14,500 per kilogram in San Diego, CA<br />
140,000 kilograms at $14, 500 per kilogram is more than $2.03 billion.<br />
<br />
The witness indicated that he helped Tony Hernandez traffic right around $2 billion worth of cocaine!RNShttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14197289255196253989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-26322813955130028402019-10-03T13:12:00.001-07:002019-10-03T13:12:29.657-07:00Trial of Tony Hernandez, Day 1The trial of Juan Antonio Hernandez Alvarado, aka "Tony" Hernandez, former Honduran Congress person and brother of the sitting President, Juan Orlando Hernandez Alvarado began today in a Federal Courthouse in New York City. Tony Hernandez is <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20191002-trial-begins-for-honduran-president-s-brother-on-drug-charges" target="_blank">charged</a> with two counts of murder of rival drug traffickers, one in 2011 and one in 2013. He is also charged with importing large quantities of cocaine into the United States. The Jury was seated, and the Prosecutor, Jason Richman, gave his opening statement, which is causing quite a stir.<br />
<br />
In his opening statement, Richman said that El Chapo Guzman gave $1 million to Tony Hernandez to give to his brother, Juan Orlando Hernandez. Richman <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-10-02/el-chapo-honduras-president-brother-bribes-allegations" target="_blank">said</a>:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The defendant was protected by and had access to his brother, the current sitting president of Honduras, a man who himself has received millions of dollars in drug money bribes -- bribes he received from some of the largest cocaine traffickers in the world, -- bribes he received from men like El Chapo and the Sinaloa cartel who personally delivered $1 million to the defendant for his brother."<br />
</blockquote>
Richman also said of Juan Orlando Hernandez that he <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-10-02/el-chapo-honduras-president-brother-bribes-allegations" target="_blank">took</a> some $1.5 million in drug money to win his first presidential campaign in 2013 in exchange for protection for the drug traffickers. He accepted a further $40,000 from traffickers for his 2017 re-election campaign, Richman <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/26/world/americas/honduras-drug-trafficking-trial.html" target="_blank">alleged</a>.<br />
<br />
Prosecutors <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-10-02/el-chapo-honduras-president-brother-bribes-allegations" target="_blank">accused</a> Juan Orlando Hernandez of working with his brother Tony and former president Porfirio Lobo Sosa to take advantage of the drug trafficking to consolidate power and control in Honduras.<br />
<br />
Former President Porfirio (Pepe) Lobo Sosa was also accused, but not charged, in the opening statement by Jason Richman. Pepe Lobo is alleged to have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/26/world/americas/honduras-drug-trafficking-trial.html" target="_blank">accepted</a> $2 million in drug money for his 2009 campaignRNShttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14197289255196253989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-4152535527176003622019-03-06T06:32:00.002-08:002019-03-06T06:32:17.434-08:00DESA: Fraud and CorruptionOn the third anniversary of Berta Cáceres' murder, MACCIH and the UFECIC-MP (Unidad Fiscal Especial Contra la Corrupción y la Impunidad del Ministerio Publico) <a href="http://www.oas.org/es/sap/dsdme/maccih/new/docs/MCH-004.MACCIH-OEA-y-UFECIC-MP-presentan-noveno-caso-de-investigacion-penal-integrada-Fraude-sobre-elGualcarque.pdf?sCodigo=MCH-004/19">announced</a> new legal cases against 16 individuals, brought as a result of studying the approval and license allocation processes for the Agua Zarca dam on the Gualcarque river in Honduras. <br />
<br />
So far in the Honduran press, only <i>El Tiempo</i> and <i>Proceso Digital</i> reported it, both digital publications. The major Honduran print papers have ignored it.<br />
<br />
The combined forces of MACCIH and UFECIC-MP chose to investigate the more than 40 complaints about irregularities in concessioning and licensing hydroelectric projects that affect the Lenca people, complaints lodged by Berta Cáceres before her murder, complaints about DESA and the Agua Zarca dam. Ana Maria Calderón, the Corruption coordinator in MACCIH, noted that the implications of their findings have a much larger application: <br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In light of today's findings, the Mission suggests that the [Government of Honduras] review the remaining active contracts and the norms that regulated them, because to continue with this energy strategy could produce an unbalance in the market and bring about the bankrupcy of ENEE; its possible that all the contracts tied to renewable sources were let in the same way [as this one].</blockquote>
<br />
If all of the many contracts and licensing processes underwent the same irregularities as this contract, it has implications for the future viability of ENEE, the national electric company, which currently runs at a loss. The Honduran government is due to tell the IMF how they plan to bring this entity to profitability sometime in the next three months. With more contracts authorized like the DESA one, they probably cannot.<br />
<br />
The investigation found that DESA was created in 2009 by two brothers (the Abate Ponces) and almost immediately Roberto David Castillo Mejia was its de-facto representative. <br />
<br />
But Castillo Mejia was also employed full time in ENEE, in the department that reviews and allocates contracts for hydroelectric projects. Very convenient for DESA.<br />
<br />
He obtained shares in the firm through a front company formed in Panama, called PEMSA, which had just two shareholders, Castillo Mejia and Carolina Lizeth Castillo Argueta. Castillo Argueta was the lawyer for the ENEE workers' union at the time, but became DESA's lawyer as well and signed the contract for DESA. She signed instead of Castillo Mejia to cover up his conflict with his role in PEMSA. DESA has another investor, Inversiones Jacaranda, owned by the Atala Zablah banking family.<br />
<br />
Both David Castillo Mejia and Carolina Castillo Argueta worked directly for the head of ENEE, Roberto Anibal Martinez Lozano, who signed the contract with DESA on behalf of ENEE. He signed the contract despite knowing DESA was not on the list of ENEE approved contractors (a prerequisite to any ENEE contract). He signed without investigating how a front company with no technical or financial assets was going to carry out this somewhat tricky contract. In short, it was an illegal contract, but he signed anyway, even over objections from his legal department.<br />
<br />
Fraud happened in the approvals process at a number of government institutions. SERNA, the environmental resources agency, for example, approved the feasibility study on December 16, 2009, without bothering to locate the land on which the project would take place, or determining who owned that land, or confirming approvals from the municipality where the dam would be located, all abnormalities that the legal department at SERNA noted. Yet they too recommended approval of the project.<br />
<br />
The feasibility study itself was improperly done. It was submitted to SERNA on October 5, 2009, just 24 hours and 5 minutes after ENEE gave its permission. Nevertheless, SERNA and Castillo Argueta signed a contract on January 22, 2010 that gave DESA the use of national water. This contract was signed despite a negative recommendation from the National Energy Council, which noted that DESA did not meet the legal requirements for a contract.<br />
<br />
SERNA issued a "Category 2" environmental license for the Agua Zarca project on March 24, 2011. MACCIH and UFECIC-MP allege the project was miscategorized in favor of DESA, giving them cheaper license fees. The environmental license required a two-year study of the amount of water flowing in the river, and the law specifies that is two years <i>after</i> the water use contract is issued. The study was supposed to contain two years of data on the volume of
water flowing in the Gualcarque river. It was supposed to be
current data.<br />
<br />
Instead the study contained data from a 2003 proposal previously
rejected by ENEE, that Carolina Castillo Argueta had access to because
the union she represented was supposed to partially finance the rejected
project.<br />
<br />
Less than two years after the water use license was approved on January 22, 2010, SERNA issued an environmental approval for the Agua Zarca dam. They had to know the data included were falsified.<br />
<br />
The 2003 project DESA plagiarized asked to construct a 6 MW power plant, and DESA's original request was also to build a 6 MW project. <br />
<br />
In August of 2010, DESA received a concession for a <i>14.5 megawatt</i> project. <br />
<br />
On May 14, 2011, DESA asked for, and received an increase to <i>21.5 megawatts</i>. <br />
<br />
DESA said it would add a third turbine to generate this power, but MACCIH suggests that it's not clear the river actually has enough water to support a third turbine, or even fully support the second turbine. Without a constructed project producing power using the proposed model, it's difficult to judge the alleged improvements. <br />
<br />
An economic analysis suggested the proposed investment in a third turbine was intended to increase the total investment DESA had in the project, which would then increase the purchase price ENEE would have to pay for their electricity. <br />
<br />
Higher investment ==> higher purchase price in ENEE's pricing models.<br />
<br />
All in all, not only does the project have the problems we knew with community consultation and approval; as an engineering project, its feasibility was uncertain. The record of approvals and contradictory roles of individuals involved is a clear indication of violation of law. And it seems the main purpose in setting the project up the way it finally was approved and was to be implemented might have had more to do with extracting more government money, than with any actual power production. <br />
<br />
The sixteen individuals charged in this case are: Francisco Rafael
Rivas Bonilla, Julio Alberto Perdomo Rivera, Catarino Alberto Cantor
López, Luis Eduardo Espinoza Mejía, Anna Lourdes Martinez Cruz, Aixa
Gabriela Zelaya Gomez, Dario Roberto Cardona Valle, Mauricio Fermin
Reconco Flores, José Mario Carbajal Flores, Oscar Javier Velásquez
Rivera, Roberto Anibal Martínez Lozano, Roberto David Castillo Mejia,
Julio Ernesto Eguigure Aguilar, Raul Pineda Pineda, Carolina Lieth
Castillo Argueta, and Saida Odilia Pinel. <br />
<br />
They now stand accused of
Abuse of Authority, failing to fulfill the requirements of a public
official, falsification of documents, negotiating in a way not
compatible with holding public office, and fraud.<br />
<br />RNShttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14197289255196253989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-40987110211611763282018-01-26T13:17:00.001-08:002018-01-26T23:47:14.850-08:00Congressional Corruption Part 1Lest we think that all is well in the Honduran Congress as a deliberative body, recent news reports in Honduras document widespread corruption in the Honduran Congress; everything from the way money ends up back in Congressperson's pockets to the way laws as published in the official newspaper, are completely different than what was voted on in Congress. Corruption here is widespread, and deep.<br />
<br />
The OAS mission to support the fight against corruption and impunity in Honduras (MACCIH for its acronym in Spanish) found out this week that the problem in Honduras with impunity and corruption isn't that they don't know how to follow the internationally recommended ways to combat corruption and write a legal framework that combats corruption. Since the 2009 coup numerous panels have made legislative suggestions that have been totally ignored. Honduran legislators, the Judicial and Executive branches have have deliberately ignored them for a reason.<br />
<br />
The problem in Honduras continues to be that the government at all levels, from the legislative, to the Judicial, and the Executive branches, is rife with corruption. They actively <a href="http://laestrella.com.pa/internacional/america/denuncia-pacto-para-impunidad-honduras/24045065">choose</a> to write legislation that facilitates corruption and impunity. No amount of MACCIH investigating crimes and suggesting model legislation will fix that. But only now is MACCIH waking up to the reality of Honduras.<br />
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This week the Honduran Supreme Court <a href="http://www.laprensa.hn/honduras/1146100-410/res_diputados-maccih-corrupcion-juan_jimenez-oea">dismissed</a> the first corruption case that MACCIH brought to trial. This was the case of the five Congresspeople who were paid off by the Executive branch for changing their allegiances to the National Party. In return they were paid using funds Congress allocated to an NGO for social programs. The money, some $300-$400,000 ended up in the private bank accounts of these five Congressmen.<br />
<br />
It was a well documented case that should have easily resulted in a conviction. Instead, the Honduran Supreme Court threw one roadblock after another at the prosecution. First, they refused the request to have the Congressmen arrested to await trial in jail. Next they scheduled the first trial date to be the Dia de Innocentes (Innocents’ Day). The Supreme Couirt judge postponed hearings time after time.<br />
<br />
Then Congress <a href="http://laestrella.com.pa/internacional/america/denuncia-pacto-para-impunidad-honduras/24045065">acted</a>, or maybe the corrupt leaders of Congress acted would be more precise. All those leaders were, at the time, members of the National Party. The lame duck Congress came back after New Years and passed a series of laws, among then on January 18th a new "Ley Organica de Presupuesto"(decreto 117-2017) with some interesting clauses. The new law, as written, takes away from the Public Prosecutor's office the right to pursue crimes related to the budget of Honduras, instead giving it to the Tribunal Superior de Cuentas (TSC). The law particularly states that while the TSC is auditing any budget item, the judicial branch cannot act. To rub MACCIH's face in it, they made the law retroactive.<br />
<br />
Given the new law, the Supreme Court judge dismissed the case against the five Congresspersons because the Public Prosecutor's office had no standing to bring the case. MACCIH works with the Public Prosecutor's office, not the Tribunal Superior de Cuentas. Not only does this destroy MACCIH's ability to investigate and prosecute the crimes it was set up to pursue, but it also closes investigations it had open on over 60 Congresspeople, including the President of the Congress, Mauricio Oliva.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.laprensa.hn/honduras/1146156-410/story.html">Article 16</a> of the law gave Congresspeople the right to request, administer, and spend public funds from any source (government, NGOs, etc) that are for community development, social aid, and the improvement of law and democracy. This change in the law legitimates the transfer of funds to the five charged Congresspersons.<br />
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<a href="http://www.laprensa.hn/honduras/1146156-410/story.html">Article 131</a> of the new law authorized the Tribunal Superior de Cuentas (TSC) to audit the use of these funds, specifically funds from 2006-2018, retroactively. It gives the TSE 3 years to perform the audit of those years and only when it is done, and publishes its report, will changes be adduced and filed against anyone. No criminal charges can be filed against anyone on these grounds while the TSC is investigating and writing its report. Nor can civil charges be filed.<br />
<br />
These changes passed with 69 votes for, and only 2 against, with 11 abstentions. The changes shut down MACCIH's investigations and ability to bring charges against this kind of financial corruption.RNShttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14197289255196253989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-39937648416139310162018-01-26T08:42:00.002-08:002018-01-26T08:43:59.658-08:00New Police Chief Tied to Wilter BlancoThe new Police Chief of Honduras's National Police, José David Aguilar Moran, aided Wilter Blanco in moving cocaine from Honduras to the United States, the AP <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/secret-report-honduras-top-cop-helped-cartel-move-52621849">reported</a> this morning.<br />
<br />
Jose David Aguilar Moran was sworn in last week after President Juan Orlando Hernandez appointed him as the Police Chief of the National Police. Juan Orlando Hernandez said of Aguilar Moran that he was "of the highest confidence".<br />
<br />
According to a Honduran Security Ministry's Inspector General's <a href="http://www.elheraldo.hn/pais/1146583-466/jefe-policia-honduras-jose-david-aguilar-moran-ayudo-narco-wilter-blanco">report</a>, in 2013, police stopped a tank truck with 780 kilograms of cocaine hidden in the tank. The truck was on the way to a property owned by Wilter Blanco, a drug trafficker from Honduras who turned himself in to the DEA and was recently sentenced to 20 years in prison.Aguilar Moran was the chief of Police Intelligence at the time.<br />
<br />
In 2013, Aguilar Moran was the head of the Intelligence division of the National Police. The then Police Chief of La Ceiba, José Rolando Paz Murillo, was a known
associate of Wilter Blanco, who visited Paz Murillo in his office and
reportedly delivered millions of dollars in bribes to Paz Aguilar. <br />
<br />
The officers stopping the truck belonged to the Tourist Police in La Ceiba led by Grebil Cecilio Giron Miranda. They had been tipped off to the truck containing cocaine by a phone call from a rival gang (Los Cachiros?) . The truck was being escorted by 11 police officers in four vehicles. After the truck was stopped, Giron Miranda escorted it to a local police station. There the La Ceiba Police Chief, Paz Murillo, ordered him to release the truck and threatened to get all the officers who stopped the truck fired.<br />
<br />
According to the report, Giron Miranda drew his gun and pointed it at Paz Murillo, made him lie on the ground, then handcuffed him. While continuing to threaten Giron Miranda, Paz asked to make a phone call, who called Aguilar Moran, then passed the telephone to Giron Miranda. Aguilar Moran reportedly ordered Giron Miranda to release the truck, Paz Murillo, and all those detained.<br />
<br />
Among those involved in this case were Aguilar Moran, then Chief of Police Intelligence, the then Inspector General of the National Police, Orlin Javier Cerrato Cruz, and Orbin Alexis Galo Maldonado, who at the time was Aguilar Moran's second in command.<br />
<br />
The AP says that one of the officers escorting the truck was later forced to retire, but otherwise none of the involved police were punished, reportedly at the request of Blanco. Nor was the Public Prosecutor's office informed. Nor was the US Ambassador, Lisa Kubiske, informed. Paz Murillo is currently a judge in Roatan.<br />
<br />
In addition to the Inspector General's report, the AP notes the event was mentioned in a page of Aguilar Moran's personnel file given to them, and corroborated by several former police officers in Honduras that they interviewed. Maria Maria Borjas, who headed the internal investigations division of the National Police until forced out, authenticated the Inspector General's report.<br />
<br />
The Honduran Government, when asked for comment, called the report "fake".<br />
<br />
<br />RNShttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14197289255196253989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-37982527411319326602018-01-09T19:35:00.001-08:002018-01-09T19:35:45.223-08:00Ponce Fonseca: Gang and Foreigners are Protesting in HondurasGeneral Rene Orlando Ponce Fonseca, head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Honduran Armed Forces, sees Venezuelans, Nicaraguans, and Salvadorans protesting in Honduras; but not Hondurans. I suggest he open his eyes.<br />
<br />
On Monday, after 100,000 Hondurans marched in San Pedro Sula on Saturday to protest the fraudulent "official" results of the Honduran elections of last November, and tens of thousands marched in Tegucigalpa on Sunday for the same reason, General Ponce Fonseca gave an interview in which he <a href="http://www.radiohrn.hn/l/noticias/en-estas-marchas-se-han-infiltrado-miembros-de-estructuras-criminales-ponce">said</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"These marches are infiltrated by members of criminal structures who have been joined by elements from other countries such as Venezuela, Nicaragua, and El Salvador, a point that's been well established."</blockquote>
<br />
Lets translate that. For "members of criminal structures" read "gang members", and for "elements from other countries" read "foreign interference". For "a point that's been well established" read "I say so". <br />
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So according to General Ponce Fonseca gangs and foreigners are marching in Honduras, upsetting the peace, causing violence, and hurting his soldiers by pelting them with rocks. Bear in mind that his soldiers have automatic weapons with live ammunition and have been firing on the crowds without provocation, and to deadly effect.<br />
<br />
To make it clear, Ponce Fonseca continued:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"The intention to maintain chaos and burn down the country are objectives that take us to another dimension which is outside of all order, but the Armed Forces are prepared to defend the people."</blockquote>
<br />
So protesters are not Honduran people to General Ponce Fonseca. The Honduran people are those who are not protesting.<br />
<br />
No wonder we see the Honduran Military Police violating the human rights of protesters all the time. RNShttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14197289255196253989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-61832717206128867632017-12-25T11:51:00.001-08:002017-12-26T09:55:04.434-08:00Party politics in Honduras, post 2017While the OAS has not recognized the outcome of the presidential election, Juan Orlando Hernández is proceeding as if the election is settled. Meanwhile, media and political observers from outside Honduras have pivoted to critiques of Salvador Nasralla, Manuel Zelaya, or both for supposedly playing their cards the wrong way, and for the actions each is taking now.<br />
<br />
This seems entirely misguided to us. It is worth noting that there was never a chance that Hernández would concede that the election was fraudulent. We doubt that he would have done anything even if the US placed pressure on him, beyond what he is doing: calling for a national "dialogue" that, as in his previous dialogues, is controlled by him and excludes those who view him as corrupt and illegitimate.<br />
<br />
Given that reality, it is worth emphasizing that having the officially reported election results come in so close was surprising, and probably not just to those of us watching from outside. Poll tallies that came in as paper documents and were not scanned at the election site appear to have been manipulated. But those transmitted directly as scans allowed the popularity of opposition to Hernández to show clearly.<br />
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Which brings us to the next steps: what is happening, and what should we make of it?<br />
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Much is being made of the fact that Nasralla and Zelaya are proceeding separately. International commentators seem to be fascinated with the personality issues involved, and ignore the fact that the Alianza was not a party. It was formed under Honduran electoral law that allows for alliances.<br />
<br />
Technically, the Alianza joined two existing parties: Libre and PINU. The party founded by Nasralla, PAC (Partido Anti-corrupción), was originally supposed to form part of the Alianza as well.<br />
<br />
However, PAC was taken over in May by dissidents, after the TSE declared their original primary null and void on a technicality. The Honduran press <a href="http://www.elheraldo.hn/eleccioneshonduras2017/partidoanticorrupcion/1060087-508/fracasa-intento-de-arreglo-en-partido-anticorrupci%C3%B3n-y-ahora-tse-emitir%C3%A1-resoluci%C3%B3n">described</a> this situation as a mess. As reports <a href="https://www.efe.com/efe/america/politica/partido-hondureno-opositor-celebrara-elecciones-primarias-sin-su-maximo-lider/20000035-3272232">published outside</a> Honduras made clear, this culminated a move by a faction in PAC that was tied to the Partido Nacional.<br />
<br />
So in the aftermath of the November election, Nasralla has no party affiliation. He has <a href="http://www.oncenoticias.hn/video-salvador-nasralla-he-tomado-la-decision-impulsar-una-nueva-fuerza-nacional/">announced</a> that he is starting over again, pushing for a <i>fuerza nacional</i>-- a national political movement, which in Honduras is a first step to forming a party. Nasralla specifically called for participation by "the Alianza that gave him the electoral triumph"<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
which will be expanded with all the other sectors of the country that oppose the dictatorship such as the people who have demonstrated in the streets, workers, the church, honest businessmen, unions, the Partido Liberal, and the youth that always accompanied him.</blockquote>
This is playing a long game, looking forward to the next election in 2021. It represents a calculated attempt to broaden his original constituency, appealing to the remnants of the Liberal Partido, which came in third in the national presidential race, but also inviting people who may have supported the Alianza but be less comfortable with Libre's strong social democratic agenda.<br />
<br />
Nasralla doesn't really have any other choice if he wants to influence the political future. There is no "Alianza" party of which he might be called the leader in Congress. The shell of PAC, led by his rival, managed to win 1 seat in congress (with less than 1% of the vote nationally). In fact, even in the 2013 elections, PAC only gained 13 seats in the congress. It was always a presidential movement, created by a prominent and visible person, but not anything like a traditional party.<br />
<br />
The stakes are different for Zelaya. With the end of the presidential campaign, he returns to his position as leader of Libre. Libre is a party that was built by experienced politicians, and includes a substantial national congressional presence. Libre won 30 seats in Congress (with 23% of the vote nationally). That's a net gain of two seats.<br />
<br />
Libre actually overtook what remains of the Partido Liberal, which saw its congressional delegation shrink from 33 to 26 (with 20% of the national vote). The Liberal Party continues to work through the aftermath of the 2009 coup, which was led by one faction within the party against the sitting president from the same party. When Zelaya created Libre, many progressives that formerly were Partido Liberal members followed him.<br />
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One of the dynamics to watch is what will become of the remains of the Liberal Party. <a href="http://www.elheraldo.hn/eleccioneshonduras2017/perfiles/1108299-515/luis-zelaya">Luis Zelaya</a>, the candidate for president, was an unexpected choice, a university professor with no history of political office holding. Part of his <a href="http://www.radiohrn.hn/l/noticias/biograf%C3%AD-de-luis-zelaya">motivations for seeking office</a> parallel those that guided Nasralla: the corruption scandal in the Honduran social services agency, IHSS. He also was moved by the extra-judicial killing of a university student.<br />
<br />
Luis Zelaya shocked most observers when he supported the assertion by Nasralla that the Alianza candidate was the real winner of the contest. He has remained firm on this point. That has led to <a href="http://www.latribuna.hn/2017/11/30/perla-simmons-lado-oscuro-pide-salida-zelaya/">calls</a> from within what his supporters call the <i>lado oscuro</i> or Dark Side of the party for his removal from his leadership of the party. Zelaya has <a href="http://www.elheraldo.hn/eleccioneshonduras2017/partidoliberal/1133380-508/luis-zelaya-anuncia-que-demandar%C3%A1-nulidad-del-proceso-electoral-presidencial-en-honduras">openly accused</a> those calling for his removal of being in a "perverse" coalition with the Partido Nacional.<br />
<br />
Back in early 2015, Mauricio Villeda, then leader of the Liberal Party, <a href="http://www.elheraldo.hn/pais/805853-214/cuatro-partidos-de-la-oposici%C3%B3n-en-honduras-firman-acuerdo-de-unidad">was part</a> of the first agreement to oppose the re-election of Juan Orlando Hernández. As recently as this spring, political strategists in Honduras <a href="http://www.laprensa.hn/honduras/elecciones2017/1053093-410/el-tiempo-y-las-diferencias-conspiran-contra-alianza-de-partidos-de-oposici%C3%B3n">were writing</a> about his chances of leading a three-party alliance in the presidential race.<br />
<br />
Which brings us to the next four years. If the Partido Liberal follows Zelaya, and he and his congressional delegation coordinate with Libre, they would form a voting bloc of 56 members, facing the Partido Nacional's 61 (based on a national vote of just under 48%). This is enough on its own to block some of the constitutional moves that have been a staple of Hernández' consolidation of power.<br />
<br />
And they could do more, with sufficient focus. The remaining 11 seats in Congress went to minority parties. The remnant PAC is suspected of being a National Party adherent. Other small parties that were floated as potential participants in a National Party alliance were the PUD, PDCH, FAPER and Vamos.<br />
<br />
Only the first two of these political movements had seats in the previous congress, holding a total of five. PUD held on to its seat, but the PDCH lost three, ending up with a single seat. That brings the total votes that normally follow Hernández automatically to 63. This is two less than a majority in the 128 seat congress.<br />
<br />
Adding the 4 congressional seats won by PINU to those of Libre, with which it formed the Alianza, would point to a core opposition of 34 votes. If the Partido Liberal under Luis Zelaya can work with Libre and PINU in the next congress on issues where they share concerns, they would still be at a disadvantage, with a total of 60 votes.<br />
<br />
The wild card is something called the Partido Alianza Patriotica. It received enough votes in this election to receive 4 seats in congress. It <a href="http://www.elheraldo.hn/eleccioneshonduras2017/1107772-508/romeo-v%C3%A1squez-candidato-por-el-partido-alinza-patriotica-de-hondure%C3%B1a-y-su">ran</a> the general who carried out the 2009 coup, Romeo Vásquez Velasquez. Not surprisingly, he ran on a tough on crime, support the military platform. In 2013, its first campaign, the party <a href="http://www.laprensa.hn/honduras/tegucigalpa/708884-98/honduras-desaparecen-partidos-faper-y-alianza-patri%C3%B3tica">didn't even win</a> a single congressional seat. So there's no history to go on.<br />
<br />
And of course, there's the lone Partido Anti-corrupción diputado elected, who just may turn out to have more leverage than expected.RAJhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00097415587406899236noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-70841738830708266322017-12-23T11:19:00.000-08:002017-12-23T19:11:42.015-08:00Pope to investigate the Honduran ChurchThe Italian newspaper, <i>L'Espresso</i>, <a href="https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/pope-francis-top-reform-cardinal-accused-of-massive-financial-scandal">reported</a> yesterday that the Pope is investigating charges of corruption, both moral and financial, against Cardinal Oscar Andrés Rodriguez Maradiaga and a close aide, Bishop Juan Jose Pineda. The allegations, <i>L'Espresso</i> noted, were made in a report to the Pontiff last May. Cardinal Rodriguez Maradiaga is in charge of the Pope's Council of Cardinals charged with reforming the priesthood in the Roman church.<br />
<br />
According to <i>L'Espresso</i>, Rodriguez Maradiaga has received payments totaling more than $600,000/year from the Catholic University of Honduras, where he is Chancellor.<br />
<br />
<i>L'Espresso</i> states that Rodriguez Maradiaga made questionable payments to the male friend of his <a href="http://tiempo.hn/cardenal-oscar-andres-rodriguez/">nephew</a> and close aide, Bishop Juan Jose Pineda. The Diocese, under Rodgriguez Maradiaga's control, bought and paid for an apartment for Bishop Juan Jose Pineda and his close friend, Erick Cravioto Fajardo, a Mexican who calls himself "Fray Erick" but has reportedly never taken vows. The two of them, Bishop Pineda and Eric Fajardo, have lived in an apartment together adjacent to the Cardinal in Villa Iris. An anonymous Italian source said that the report implied a <a href="https://www.aciprensa.com/noticias/controversia-tras-acusaciones-de-revista-italiana-contra-cardenal-rodriguez-maradiaga-74853">close and indecorous relationship</a> between Pineda and Fajardo. Bishop Pineda recently bought Fajardo a new apartment near the center of the city, and a new car. <i>L'Espresso</i> implies the funds for these purchases came from the Diocese.<br />
<br />
<i>L'Espresso</i> also claims the report says that Rodriguez Maradiaga has sent millions of dollars of Diocesan money to offshore, London-based investment firms like Leman Wealth Management that ceased to exist after two years and "<a href="https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/cardinal-maradiaga-responds-to-allegations-of-corruption-48097">lost</a>" $1.2 million of the money after depositing it in German banks. In addition, the report reportedly says that millions of dollars of Diocesan funds have been given to projects controlled by Bishop Pineda, projects that have only weakly defined goals.<br />
<br />
The issues were investigated and the report was written by Argentinian Bishop Jorge Casaretto.<br />
<br />
The Archdiocese of Honduras responded saying that the Catholic University supports all the Bishops of Honduras, and that it's not "personal" money, but money to further the Diocesan mission. The Archdiocese <a href="https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/cardinal-maradiaga-responds-to-allegations-of-corruption-48097">denies</a>
that there was any kind of offshore investment as described in
<i>L'Espresso</i>. Bishop Pineda asked for and received a personal meeting
with the Pope to clear his name.<br />
<br />
Padre Juan Ángel Lopez, a spokesperson for the Episcopal Conference of Honduras, told <a href="http://www.elheraldo.hn/pais/1137201-466/denuncias-contra-el-cardenal-%C3%B3scar-andr%C3%A9s-rodr%C3%ADguez-son-campa%C3%B1a-contra-el-papa">told</a> <i>El Heraldo </i>that this was part of a plot to remove Cardinal Rodgriguez Maradiaga, who turns 75 next week and must submit his resignation to the Pope for consideration. RNShttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14197289255196253989noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-75496558036850290952017-12-18T10:53:00.001-08:002017-12-18T10:53:17.259-08:00Dictatorship: the ghost that haunts re-election in HondurasThe tweet from @Codigo504 is the kind of mordant humor I think of as typically Honduran:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Después del informe de OEA y el tuitazo de Almagro los cachurecos deben calcular bien sus próximas acciones. <a class="twitter-hashtag pretty-link js-nav" data-query-source="hashtag_click" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CariasQueHubieraHecho?src=hash"><s>#</s><b>CariasQueHubieraHecho</b></a>?<br />
<br />
After OAS’ report and Almagro’s tweet, the Cachurecos need to think very carefully about their next steps <a class="twitter-hashtag pretty-link js-nav" data-query-source="hashtag_click" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WhatWouldCariasDo?src=hash"><s>#</s><b>WhatWouldCariasDo</b></a>?
</blockquote>
<br />
"What Would Carias Do?"<br />
<br />
That's easy: hold on to power however he could. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiburcio_Car%C3%ADas_Andino">Tiburcio Carías Andino</a> is the ghost hovering over presidential re-election in Honduras.<br />
<br />
While the rhetoric used to justify the 2009 made re-election especially potent as a current political issue, the constitutional ban on re-election is not a long-established Honduran practice. It was inserted in the <a href="http://pdba.georgetown.edu/Constitutions/Honduras/honduras.html">1982 constitution that</a> Oscar Arias famously <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/honduran-coup-regime-crisis/">called</a> the "worst in the entire world" during his failed attempt to negotiate an end to the 2009 crisis.<br />
<br />
The 1982 constitution was enacted as part of the exit from a long period of military rule, guided by the relationship of Honduras and the United States. One of the <a href="http://countrystudies.us/honduras/84.htm">new features</a> was the declaration in the Constitution that certain provisions could not be amended, including the prohibition on re-election and the definition of the term of the presidency as four years. These features <a href="http://www.constitutionnet.org/news/honduras-term-limits-drama-20-how-supreme-court-declared-constitution-unconstitutional">have been described</a> as "centerpieces" of the new 1982 constitution.<br />
<br />
Why such an insistence that no future president would serve more than four years? It might seem at first that this was intended to forestall the kind of military dictatorships that had dominated Honduras from 1963 to 1982 (with a brief hiatus for an elected government lasting just over a year from 1971-1972). But that is too short a time frame to understand this provision.<br />
<br />
Tiburcio Carías Andino is the ghost hanging over the understanding of the potential for a Honduran President to exploit electoral laws to hang on to power indefinitely. The Honduran people see Juan Orlando Hernández as seeking to follow the path of Carías, not of Policarpo Paz.<br />
<br />
Carías Andino first took supreme executive control of Honduras in 1924, during a period of substantial political conflict. In 1932, he ran for election and started an unprecedented period of 16 years in that office. The constitution in force at the time prohibited consecutive terms as President, so Carías Andino initiated the writing of a <a href="http://www.constitutionnet.org/country/constitutional-history-honduras">new constitution</a>. This allowed him to stay in office, and consolidate executive control.<br />
<br />
Carías suppressed political opposition. His power ended in part due to protests that began in the capital city and in San Pedro Sula. In the latter case, the brutal suppression of the protests <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=k944CQAAQBAJ&lpg=PA42&dq=%22san%20pedro%20sula%22%20communists%20euraque&pg=PA71#v=onepage&q&f=false">shaped a generation</a> of political activists.<br />
<br />
In the aftermath of his presidency, Honduras experienced a significant turmoil, starting with a presidential term by Carías hand-picked successor, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Manuel_G%C3%A1lvez">Juan Manuel Gálvez</a>. Toward the end of his term in office, a major strike against the dominant banana industry transformed the country, showing the power of labor.<br />
<br />
The 1954 election for president did not produce a candidate with the then-required majority vote. (A majority is no longer required by the 1982 constitution, leading to the election in 2013 of a president who received less than 38% of the popular vote, and contributing to the crisis of 2017. This non-majority clause can be seen as another haunting from the age of Carías Andino.)<br />
<br />
In 1954, the <a href="http://countrystudies.us/honduras/20.htm">resolution of the election</a> was messy: the legislature was supposed to vote to decide who would be president, requiring a two-thirds majority. Two parties boycotted the required sessions, preventing this resolution. The Supreme Court was supposed to resolve a legislative failure to decide, but it was perceived as illegitimate due to being packed by Carías Andino. (Legislative packing of the Supreme Court by Hernández facilitated the <a href="http://www.constitutionnet.org/news/honduras-term-limits-drama-20-how-supreme-court-declared-constitution-unconstitutional">decision</a> that opened the way to his seeking re-election, another piece of the Carías playbook that he emulated.)<br />
<br />
In <a href="http://www.coha.org/ramon-villeda-morales-the-little-bird-who-brought-big-changes-and-honor-to-honduras/">the void of power</a>, the vice president, Julio Lozano Díaz, took over, suspending the congress and instituting the writing of a new constitution. His extra-legal regime lasted two years, ending with a military coup. The candidate from 1954 who had received the most votes, Ramón Villeda Morales, was elected to a six-year term in 1957.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.coha.org/ramon-villeda-morales-the-little-bird-who-brought-big-changes-and-honor-to-honduras/">Villeda Morales</a> initiated modernizing policies including modest agrarian reforms. By the end of his term, these led to opposition from conservative sectors of Honduran society. Under the constitution then in force, Villeda Morales himself was limited to one six year term as president. His party's nominee was expected to win, however, and to continue his policies.<br />
<br />
That prospect was enough to initiate a military coup. The seizure of government initiated the long period that only ended in 1982 with the ratification of the current constitution. Its provisions about presidential election are shaped by the history that began with Carías Andino: a single term for president, without re-election, and no requirement for a majority, a run-off election, or any mechanism for resolving elections too close to truly be called like the one that once threw election to the Congress and then the Supreme Court.<br />
<br />
The US government in 1963, under the direction of President John F. Kennedy, cancelled aid, withdrew US military from Honduras, and called the Ambassador to Honduras back to the US. None of these actions led to the return of control to civilian government. General <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/jun/10/general-oswaldo-lopez-arellano-obituary">Oswaldo López Arrellano</a>, who held power until 1971 and again from 1972 to 1975, eventually initiated new agrarian reforms, before falling out of power due to a bribery scandal involving the United Fruit Company.<br />
<br />
His two successors, also military officers holding extra-judicial power, consolidated the <a href="https://theglobalamericans.org/2016/06/honduran-military-culture/">ideology of the military</a> as a stabilizing force that led to their institutionalization in the current constitution as the guarantors of democratic processes. That constitutional role was cited <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/05/world/americas/05honduras.html">by the military</a> as motivation for their actions in the 2009 coup d'etat.<br />
<br />
Hernández has worked to make the army loyal to him. He has also invested, with substantial US aid, in the creation of <a href="http://cepr.net/blogs/the-americas-blog/honduras-military-police-as-a-major-electoral-issue">new militarized police</a> whose role in the 2013 election already was seen as promoting repression. The history of presidential manipulation of the armed forces, too, can be <a href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2013/09/13/honduras-on-the-brink-of-change/">traced back to the Carías dictatorship</a> that is providing so much of the model for the current president.<br />
<br />
So indeed, the question #whatwouldCariasDo appears to be the one that we all should be asking as we watch to see what tactics the modern successor to the authoritarian who scarred Honduran political memory might adopt.<br />
<br />RAJhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00097415587406899236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-83548686147024208202017-12-17T23:10:00.002-08:002017-12-17T23:10:56.573-08:00Statistics and fraudWe now have two separate statistical analyses of Honduran presidential voting data, and both conclude the same thing: there was something fishy that happened in the middle of vote counting.<br />
<br />
To recap: <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21732118-our-analysis-disputed-vote-count-what-data-say-about-integrity-hondurass"><i>The Economist</i></a> looked at the percentages of votes that went to the two main candidates before and after the long break by the TSE in posting vote counts.<br />
<br />
Before the break, with about 57% of the vote counted, Salvador Nasralla had a 5% lead. After that, the lead steadily declined to the final apparent margin of just over 50,000 votes.<br />
<br />
<i>The Economist</i> specifically asked whether the explanation offered by the Partido Nacional-- which claimed that the later votes came from more rural locations more likely to favor their candidate-- could account for the shift. They compared vote counts before and after the break in counting within each <i>municipio</i>.<br />
<br />
Rather than being differences between urban and rural places, their analysis compared vote counts within each locality. They found an average shift of 3.8% <i>within the same locality</i>. It didn't matter if the municipio was rural or urban-- they all shifted the same way.<br />
<br />
One known difference: votes tallied after the break included a large number that were not scanned and transmitted from the polling places on the day of the election. Instead, these were trucked up to Tegucigalpa and scanned there<i>.</i> Much of the discussion about vote counting has centered on the treatment of these vote tallies, including concerns about some arriving in open, unsecured packages, and the rumor that some were scanned in a hotel (and thus potentially could have had substitutes).<br />
<br />
<i>The Economist</i> also drew attention to the unusually high voter turnout reported in the late-counted votes, in particular, from three largely rural departments. This, they note, could reflect a better get-out-the-vote operation-- or ballot box stuffing. Here it is worth remembering that the sign-off on vote tallies is done by credentialed party members, and there has been reported fraud and sale of credentials by smaller parties, in 2013 and 2017,<br />
<br />
There matters stood until the release by the OAS today of a <a href="http://www.oas.org/fpdb/press/Nooruddin-Analysis-for-OAS-Honduras-2017.pdf">report</a> by Georgetown University Professor Irfan Nooruddin. His analysis identifies a point when 68% of the votes were counted where, across different regions, both the turnout level and support for the Partido Nacional increases sharply. Either of these would be unusual; both are very unusual.<br />
<br />
Nooruddin uses the reported data to do something that the actual vote counting never did: he simulates what vote counts would have looked like if results had posted randomly. This has been a key problem throughout the process: it is unclear what order the TSE used in its vote counting; it was not statistically random nor selected to be a representative sample. The OAS in its initial report noted that the TSE shifted from counting as votes came in to some unexplained selection process. Nooruddin helps us see if the election would have been less confusing if the voting tallies were counted randomly.<br />
<br />
The conclusion of this part of the analysis is that if the votes were accurate, and were counted randomly, the pattern seen could have happened, and not result from tampering.<br />
<br />
Nooruddin doesn't stop there-- as he notes, this part of the analysis is only worthwhile if the vote counts were accurate. He continues with tests of this assumption, and finds that the differences between early counted vote tallies and later ones "are large and suspicious".<br />
<br />
Every department showed the same pattern of early lead for the Alianza followed by a change in pattern. As in the analysis by <i>The Economist</i>, the universality of this pattern is not easily explained by innocent factors. There is nothing about early vs. late vote tallies that would account for this.<br />
<br />
It is as if there were two elections being counted, with precincts in every department changing the same way.<br />
<br />
The only way we can imagine to have this result would be if for some reason the TSE did a preliminary sort of actas and deferred counting those most favorable to the National Party until last. Needless to say, that makes no sense.<br />
<br />
Nooruddin points out that the shift in turnout in the later-counted tallies would be expected less than one in one thousand times-- statistically a significant difference. He presents an in-depth analysis of the Department of La Paz that shows that even in a department that favored Hernández throughout counting, and has a higher-than-average turnout rate, the later vote tallies increased in both reported turnout and voting for the Partido Nacional. The turnout increase is statistically likely to occur only one time in one thousand. Nooruddin concludes "such a sharp increase in turnout <i>in the same department</i> is unusual".<br />
<br />
He writes that these findings are "consistent with a hypothesis of tampering with the vote tallies that were counted last".<br />
<br />
So what could have happened?<br />
<br />
One way to produce such an effect is good old fashioned ballot box stuffing-- reporting more votes than actually took place, and attributing the extra votes to a preferred candidate. Once the acta was signed, no one went back to double check the voter rolls or ballots. As long as the math on the tallies added up, you could have a voting pool in whatever form you like. This might well be correlated with places where votes weren't transmitted online the day of the election, as the ballot stuffing could happen at many points.<br />
<br />
A lot of anxiety around these late vote tallies revolves around whether fake actas were substituted on the way to Tegucigalpa, or even fake images of actas in the TSE database. These, again, would work, and would not produce any contradiction unless the full ballot box was opened and recounted.<br />
<br />
Both statistical analyses allow for the possibility this was just a really unusual way votes came in and were counted. But in Honduras, there is little trust in the system and unusual has already translated into illegitimate.<br />
<br />
What happens next will determine whether Hondurans can begin to rebuild trust in democratic processes.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />RAJhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00097415587406899236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-18350609235190500772017-12-17T21:37:00.001-08:002017-12-17T21:37:18.884-08:00OAS calls for new elections in HondurasToday witnessed a series of press conferences in the contested Honduran election.<br />
<br />
Shortly after the OAS Mission said it would be making a statement late today, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral announced its own announcement would be made earlier in the day.<br />
<br />
Not surprisingly, given previous statements, the TSE's announcement was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/17/world/americas/honduran-presidential-election.html">their conclusion</a> that the presidential election had been won by Juan Orlando Hernández, of the Partido Nacional. Neither the Partido Liberal nor the Alianza formed by two opposition parties, the Partido Anti-corrupción and LIBRE, have accepted the vote tallies posted by the TSE, alleging a number of different kinds of fraud.<br />
<br />
There is also a potential legal issue left unaddressed: whether the candidacy of Hernández was entirely legal. The current president ran for an unprecedented second term under a Honduran constitution that prohibited even talk of re-election, until a Supreme Court he shaped while head of Congress ruled otherwise. The Supreme Court ruling opened the door to re-election. But lawmakers in Honduras did not pass any legislation authorizing re-election. Technically, then, this is not just an unprecedented election outcome: it is one that took place outside any defined legal framework.<br />
<br />
Both the European Union and the Organization of American States are on record as seeing the electoral process as problematic. While the EU released a <a href="https://eeas.europa.eu/election-observation-missions/eom-honduras-2017/37539/eu-eom-honduras-2017-statement-following-declaration-provisional-results-2017-general_en">statement</a> today that many read as supporting the TSE's conclusion, the OAS today signaled more reservations, beginning with <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-oas-says-serious-questions-remain-over-honduras-election-2017-12">statements</a> by Secretary General Luis Almagro on Twitter.<br />
<br />
These were expanded in the OAS <a href="http://www.oas.org/es/centro_noticias/comunicado_prensa.asp?sCodigo=C-092/17">announcement</a> this evening that the Secretary General of the OAS cannot provide certainty about the results of the election. The press release reiterates previous descriptions of the electoral process as "characterized by irregularities and deficiencies" and of "very low technical quality" and "lacking integrity".<br />
<br />
The press release continues:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
in the face of the impossibility of determining a winner, the only road possible for the winner to be the Honduran people is a new called to general elections, within the strictest respect for the rule of law, with guarantees of a TSE that would enjoy the technical capacity and the confidence of the citizenry and the political parties.</blockquote>
<br />
This is followed by the appointment of a commission from the OAS of ex-presidents Jorge Quiroga and Alvaro Colom to "carry out the necessary work for a new electoral process and national democratic reconciliation in Honduras".<br />
<br />
The full basis for this position is contained in the OAS mission's <a href="http://www.oas.org/fpdb/press/Segundo-Informe-Preliminar-MOE-Honduras-18dic-FINAL.pdf">report</a> to the Secretary General. It rehearses all the weaknesses in the electoral process. It calls allowing a run for re-election based on a court finding (without implementing legislation in place) a "bad practice...that revived the polarization generated by the coup and political crisis of 2009".<br />
<br />
The OAS report also provides a <a href="http://www.oas.org/fpdb/press/Nooruddin-Analysis-for-OAS-Honduras-2017.pdf">new statistical analysis</a> by Professor Irfan Nooruddin of Georgetown University addressing whether the sharp change in voting patterns noted after a break in counting could be explained in any innocent way.<br />
<br />
This retraces some of the terrain covered by an analysis in <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21732118-our-analysis-disputed-vote-count-what-data-say-about-integrity-hondurass"><i>The Economist</i></a> that concluded that the shifts in voting seen were very unlikely.<br />
<br />
Professor Nooruddin uses additional techniques, and concludes "on the basis of this analysis, I would reject the proposition that the National Party won the election<br />legitimately."<br />
<br />
We will revisit these statistical analyses tomorrow, explaining what they do (and do not) show, and relate those observations to some of the known problems in the conduct of Honduran elections in general, and this one in particular.<br />
<br />
For now, though, the question is: will Juan Orlando Hernández accept the OAS recommendation? Or does he think he can ignore the massive resistance to his re-election that has already led to almost two dozen deaths of protesters, and the closure of roads across the country? RAJhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00097415587406899236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-5609829090236033512017-12-16T13:36:00.006-08:002017-12-16T13:36:59.891-08:00Processing an Acta: Rules and ProceduresAmidst allegations of voting fraud, the Honduran Tribunal Supremo Electoral does itself no favors with its incapacity to explain what it does. For many outside observers, it may be worth reiterating that the TSE does not directly count ballots; even when voting irregularities are charged, they mainly return to and re-examine the summaries of votes at each polling place, or MER.<br />
<br />
Even those of us who have been following contested TSE procedures through the last three electoral cycles can get confused about how the TSE processes these vote tally sheets (<i>acta</i> in Spanish). Some confusion about how the political parties obtain actas has been evident in blog posts and other coverage. Although what follows is dense, it is an attempt to make this more transparent.<br />
<br />
There are published <a href="https://www.tse.hn/web/documentos/Acu-2017/Acuerdo_20_2017_Reglamento_SIEDE_EG2017.PDF">rules governing</a> how <i>actas</i> are supposed to be generated and transmitted to the TSE. The rules are contained in a <a href="https://www.tse.hn/web/documentos/Acu-2017/Acuerdo_20_2017_Reglamento_SIEDE_EG2017.PDF">document</a> issued by the Tribunal Supremo Electoral on November 21 and published in <i>La Gaceta</i> of November 24, 2017-- just two days before the election. They are titled "Reglamento del Sistema Integrado de Escrutinio y
Divulgacion Electoral (SIEDE)" and describe both the hardware and software
environment for the processing of vote tally sheets for the three
elections held on November 26, 2017.<br />
<br />
Here's how it was supposed to work: <br />
<br />
First, there is a physical space in a voting center where there are two different kinds of "digitization kits". This is the ATX, the "area of transmission (area de transmisión)". <br />
<br />
It contains a tablet kit, consisting of a tablet, a multifunction printer/scanner, and a GSM (cell phone) modem. It also contains the Operador de Mesa Receptora (OMR) kit, consisting of a tablet, multifunction printer/scanner, and 2 GSM modems, one for TIGO and one for CLARO, the two major cell phone providers in Honduras. <br />
<br />
Each OMR kit serves up to five MER (polling places). The modems are supposed to be connected to a Virtual Private Network (VPN) over the cell phone provider's data network, terminating in the TSE's computer center.<br />
<br />
Each OMR kit is operated by a custodian who is designated and credentialed by the TSE.<br />
<br />
On the day of the election, the TSE is supposed to reset its database, and all counts, to zero at 6 am and generate and sign a document that this occurred.<br />
<br />
At 7am, the digitization kits are set up in the voting centers. At that time the security envelope containing the login information for that specific kit is opened, and the operator logs in over the VPN to the TSE system to receive encryption keys, security certificates, digital signatures for each MER that that operator will support, and only for those MER. <br />
<br />
The operator then generates an "hoja de prueba" that is supposed to show that there are no images of actas stored on the tablet, print it, and sign it, then scan it and send it to the TSE. This process is supposed to shut down the OMR kit, so that it cannot be used until after the voting center closes at 4 pm<br />
<br />
At 4 PM, when the voting center closes, the software controls the transmission of the voting tally sheets. Voting tally sheets (<i>actas</i>) are generated at each MER for each of the three levels of election, in this order: Presidential, Congressional, and then Municipal. <i>Actas</i> are signed by representatives of each political parties present at the MER.<br />
<br />
Then the President of the MER, along with any members who want to join in, take the vote tally sheets physically to the ATX area inside the voting center.<br />
<br />
Once the acta is at the ATX, it is the responsibility of the ATX custodian to wake up the equipment, log in using the TSE supplied credentials, verify the ATX information (department, municipality, voting center, identification number of the ATX, number of the MER).<br />
<br />
We can assume that all of this information is contained in the JSON information transmitted to the TSE. We can also guess that this error-prone manual process is responsible for the <i>actas</i> in the TSE system today that have images of the tally sheet for a particular MER, but are filed within the system as if they are the tally for a different MER. This is acknowledging that there is the potential for operator error, which the system is supposed to have safeguards to prevent. Once the information is entered into the tablet, the custodian is supposed to make sure the whole system is working (the procedure to do this is not specified).<br />
<br />
Then the OMR custodian scans the actas in the ATX that serves the particular group of MERs.<br />
<br />
The software works off a QR code on the acta and verifies it is for a MER assigned to this ATX and OMR kit. Once scanned, the system displays the scan on the tablet for the custodian to verify the quality of the scan, that the information is legible, and that it is correctly scanned with no missing or obscured information. If it is OK, they click a button on the screen to transmit it. If its not OK, they click another button on the screen to rescan the acta.<br />
<br />
Transmission occurs between the ATX and a receiving server in the TSE computing center, where it is then replicated to the servers of each of the political parties.<br />
<br />
The political parties are responsible for installing a fiber optic network between their server and the TSE network. Each acta replicated is encrypted with a digital signature that
guarantees its authenticity, as transmitted by the ATX. The political
parties and the TSE verify the digital signature of the acta to validate
it.<br />
<br />
There is a second check on poll tallies provided for the political parties. Back at the OMR, once an acta is transmitted up to the TSE, the custodian prints enough copies of the acta to give to each party's representative on the MER and stamps of the back of each one a rubber stamp that says it conforms to the original and is signed by the secretary of the MER. This process is repeated for each of the OMR kit's MER for the actas for the Presidential, Congressional, and Municipal elections.<br />
<br />
Obviously, if there isn't a party representative at a specific MER, this copy won't be received by the party. In general, when the parties cite their actas, they mean the ones transmitted by the TSE, but they may also have the paper copies.<br />
<br />
Once transmission concludes for all actas, the custodian prints a receipt for his/her service as custodian and transmits the log files to the TSE.<br />
<br />
Now here's one place where what happens introduces the fear of manipulation: all the actas scanned at the ATX centers are supposed to be scanned a second time in Tegucigalpa when the physical package of electoral materials (<i>maletas</i> in Spanish) arrives. The OAS report noted that some of these arrived without security, already open. Pictures of a truck backing up to a hotel in Tegucigalpa that appeared to show such packages raised the concern about some actas possibly being scanned outside the INFOP facilities. In both situations, there is concern that a substitute acta could have been inserted in place of the one scanned on election day at the ATX center.<br />
<br />
The published rules make clear that at INFOP, as the documentation physically arrives, the actas are taken out and scanned a second time, and that those scans go into the TSE computers and are replicated to the party servers.<br />
<br />
The scans produced in Tegucigalpa replace original scans transmitted from ATX centers. These scans are clearly done using different procedures with a different way of getting in to the system. INFOP does not use the ATX software. There are no documented security protocols to provide for the authenticity of the INFOP scans in the rules as printed by the government.<br />
<br />
We presume that the scanner and software in the INFOP center is different than that used in the ATX centers. The images from scanning at the INFOP center (1) lack the time and date stamp at the top, and (2) don't clearly show the security tape applied to the acta to prevent alteration.<br />
<br />
It is notable that the otherwise very specific rules from the TSE do a bunch of hand waving rather than documenting the scanning protocol at the INFOP warehouse. It is only by reading between the lines that we can infer that these scans replace the ATX transmitted scans in the TSE system. A proper software/procedural audit would have questioned why there were no protocols described for this process, but the TSE didn't ask its audit firm, Audisis, for a pre-election audit.<br />
<br />
What the published rules make clear is that each political party can
receive both a physical certified copy of each acta from its
representative on the MER, and a digitally transmitted, encrypted acta
image from the ATX, replicated from the TSE receiving server. <br />
<br />
Each party also
receives a scan of the acta made in the INFOP warehouse as each election package physically arrives back at the TSE warehouse and is opened and scanned. <br />
<br />
At no point does the TSE compare each of the scanned images with the paper original and the votes recorded in its computers to validate the results of the election. That simple procedure would detect some kinds of fraud that are suspected or rumored.RNShttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14197289255196253989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-15468498423951753432017-12-15T21:28:00.001-08:002017-12-15T21:31:43.414-08:00More Audit IrregularitiesThanks to the incredible people over at the <a href="https://votosocial2017.herokuapp.com/">Voto Social</a> we now have another <a href="http://tse-analisis.ghost.io/a-small-detail-of-the-general-elections-honduras-2017/">anomaly</a> related to the Actas, that the timestamps added by the ATX system when it scanned the actas have been systematically removed from the images of all but 3,737 actas in the TSE system.<br />
<br />
Just to refresh your understanding of this part of the voting hardware and software, each MER submits a vote tally sheet, an acta, as a paper form to be scanned and transmitted to the TSE. The scanning software adds a time stamp in the upper left to the images of actas before encoding the image, its MER number, and other data into a JSON post to the TSE main computer system in Tegucigalpa. Here's a sample, as originally downloaded by the Voto Social website from the TSE archive:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcCMa2KDRh3AujajE3HXStxoXgj5Pq3-VI3jDW99snbe45Ga1yrRPWgfHz1y9WxeuMPDn0YZdz5MbAj901FOrZ3Q0INFfzqPALajqkGeATYYDASLDD5ryH-hwXnRDXjPnOgJY1_hg0glc/s1600/4479+-ATX.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="92" data-original-width="985" height="57" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcCMa2KDRh3AujajE3HXStxoXgj5Pq3-VI3jDW99snbe45Ga1yrRPWgfHz1y9WxeuMPDn0YZdz5MbAj901FOrZ3Q0INFfzqPALajqkGeATYYDASLDD5ryH-hwXnRDXjPnOgJY1_hg0glc/s640/4479+-ATX.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
Note the small text above the TSE and 2017.<br />
<br />
Here's how the same acta appears in the TSE system today:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTgaUfXfZqDsRNasbJvK1xnkvAB74JJL8hMloGlX92Zt_d5fs52nvu_2wjEEnPBTI1N9peEG_-7vgMyN321zU_2S4N6zETAynl0PsXfvXTg41YDXJCM77dQklsL7kIexpwPpxlLheea2k/s1600/04479-TSE.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="174" data-original-width="1600" height="68" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTgaUfXfZqDsRNasbJvK1xnkvAB74JJL8hMloGlX92Zt_d5fs52nvu_2wjEEnPBTI1N9peEG_-7vgMyN321zU_2S4N6zETAynl0PsXfvXTg41YDXJCM77dQklsL7kIexpwPpxlLheea2k/s640/04479-TSE.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
Suddenly the ATX scanning software added text on the acta image is missing. There is no conceivable reason for anyone to edit the image to remove that data, except that it provides a way to precisely audit when the images were added to the TSE database. So someone removed information that could have been used to audit the addition and counting of actas in the TSE system.<br />
<br />
In addition, the ATX scanners provided better quality scans so that you could actually see the security measures on each acta, such as the special tape that was put on the acta over the vote tallies to prevent alteration. You can see the left edge of the tape on the top image, but its almost undetectable on the bottom one. They noted that on some of the original scans you could even read the security watermark in the tape, while on the scans in the TSE system, it is invisible. You can see the full images from which these details were extracted on the Voto Social website <a href="http://165.227.18.222/diff/4479">here</a>.<br />
<br />
They take all of the above as evidence that the TSE for some reason rescanned or edited actas that were transmitted on a non ATX scanner and entered them in some other fashion in the TSE database. They note that there is no established protocol in the TSE that would require the rescanning or editing of ATX images. They also note that there are no attempts on these actas to change any of the data....just the curiosity that original time stamped images were replaced with lower quality images that removed the time stamp information that could have been used to audit the arrival of each MER's acta. No international observers report being present when acta images were re-scanned or edited.<br />
<br />
But there are other curiosities with the images as well. The ATX transmitted version of acta 13014 has no signatures, but the image stored in the TSE database does. You can see side by side copies <a href="http://165.227.18.222/diff/13014">here</a>. The Voto Social authors suggest it was transmitted this way to allow the TSE to add the signatures, though why they would want to do that is not examined. This particular acta contains more votes for Nasralla than it does for Hernandez.<br />
<br />
What does this mean? It means that there is undocumented either rescanning or editing of ATX scanned actas as part of TSE procedures, neither of which appears as part of the <a href="https://www.tse.hn/web/documentos/Acu-2017/Acuerdo_20_2017_Reglamento_SIEDE_EG2017.PDF">governing rules</a> of the Sistema Integrado de Escrutinio y Divulgación Electoral (SIEDE), the composite TSE vote tallying system and software., for this election.<br />
<br />
<br />RNShttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14197289255196253989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-24916776055482704632017-12-10T13:44:00.003-08:002017-12-10T13:44:36.706-08:00Auditing UpdateThis is an update to the previous post based on a memo issued by the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (not Audisis) on the crash of the TSE servers on November 29. This update is a result of finding a technical appendix on <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=http://procesodigital.hn/informe-servidor-tse.pdf&hl=es">another</a> copy of the TSE memo.<br />
<br />
First, lets make it clear the memo comes from the TSE, not Audisis as the press coverage implied.<br />
<br />
The appendix describes the vote counting system as a group of clustered servers. Scanned acta images are transmitted from the INFOP warehouse to a cluster of two receivers at the TSE. Transmission is via JSON, a markup language, over a secure network connection. From there, the JSON markup is converted to a database record, transitioning through an application software cluster of two servers, and a database cluster of two servers. We learn for the first time what we had guessed; that the database software is MS SQL. The database cluster talks to a single database of 600 Gbytes on a SAN system which has 12 TBytes of free storage. The transcription of the actas takes place on a series of desktops connected to the application software level over a network. We know that there are at least 60 computers doing transcription today, and probably more. The Technical diagram does not show the web dissemination of data a part of this process.<br />
<br />
The appendix says that Dell AMC sized the original database at 600 GBytes based on recommendations of the vendor of the transcription software.<br />
<br />
The tecnical appendix has confused and undoubtedly not correct set of times for events, and contradicts the main report of what happened with respect to the database. We will use the times reported in the appendix here, but compare with the times reported in our previous blog post, which came from the body of the report.<br />
<br />
Both the appendix and the body of the report agree that the servers ran out of space and went down at 9:47 am on November 29. They shut down the transcription system and enlarged the database to 1.8 TBytes. They repeat that it took 3 hours 20 minutes to enlarge the database and bring the transcription system back up, coming back on line about 1:10 pm the same day. When they restarted transcription, the MS SQL database was unstable, needing to be restarted every 10 minutes. No explanation of why it kept crashing or why they thought taking the next steps would resolve it.<br />
<br />
At 5:30 pm they took down Node 1 of the database cluster, leaving Node 2 to do all database access. This supposedly restored some stability to the Transcription service. At the time they took Node 1 off the cluster, they decided to install a new database instance on it, in case Node 2 started crashing. This involved reinstalling MS SQL on Node 1, which they renamed SQL4, which they then gave a 6 TByte database. They also configured another server, SQL5, as a mirror of SQL4, with a 2 TByte database. They took a snapshot of the database on Node 2 at 9:47 pm? and restored it on to SQL4 and SQL5, finishing about 1:10 am? (the appendix says PM but that's not possible unless it took into the next afternoon, long after they'd restarted the transcription process). The transcription server was then reconfigured to use SQL4 and Node 2 and its database were permanently retired. SQL5 collected a mirror of the database but otherwise was not part of the transcription process.<br />
<br />
Audisis reportedly then audited what the TSE had done. The TSE claims what they did was completely transparent. This description of a reformat of the server and installation of a new, larger database on the SAN matches with what the Alianza reported when they stated that the TSE had formatted the server. They did.<br />
<br />
Just as a point of normal procedure, it should have been Audisis that released a report on the changes to the system, not the TSE, and it should have been Audisis in its own words reporting on the integrity, or lack thereof, of the systems after the change. Instead the TSE chose to put words in Audisis's mouth. That they managed to nearly fill up a 12 TByte SAN with databases is remarkable.RNShttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14197289255196253989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-4158810856562892322017-12-09T17:30:00.001-08:002017-12-09T17:30:18.738-08:00Auditing a Failed Election<span class="st">Auditoría Integral y Seguridad de Sistemas de Información (Audisis),the Colombian firm hired by the TSE on November 13 to audit the election results for the November 26th election, has released an unsatisfactory memo detailing what caused the TSE computers to fail on November 29, and what modifications were made to the system to fix it. In the process it raises more questions than it answers. </span><br />
<span class="st"><br /></span>
<span class="st">The Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) announced it had reached a contract with Audisis to audit the election results of the November 26th election on November 13th. David Matamoros Batson <a href="http://confidencialhn.com/2017/11/13/tse-pagara-mas-de-16-millones-de-lempiras-a-empresa-auditora-colombiana-audisis/">informed</a> everyone at the time that they were lucky to have found such a qualified firm for only $700,000. Matamoros <a href="http://elpulso.hn/audisis-ltda-auditara-los-resultados-de-las-elecciones-generales/">stated</a> that Audisis and the TSE had agreed on 7 points to be audited:</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="st">(1) Security of the actas, that the image scanned in the voting center is the same as the image received by the TSE to count.</span><br />
<span class="st">(2) verify the software used by the TSE for counting and publicizing the tallies is what is being used.</span><br />
<span class="st">(3) network security</span><br />
<span class="st">(4) verify the functioning of the vote tallying software for all the elections being run on November 26.</span><br />
<span class="st">(5) security of the database</span><br />
<span class="st">(6) make sure transmitted actas are shared with the political parties</span><br />
<span class="st">(7) evaluate the suitability of the technology being used to publicize the results.</span></blockquote>
<br />
So with the above in mind, Audisis <a href="http://www.elheraldo.hn/csp/mediapool/sites/dt.common.streams.StreamServer.cls?STREAMOID=E46JcWMkAOOT$vHwyEff2aaAJ_I4YTPrsH_w1iAJhcV9Mko1mRAh5lfKccPezZxdMy9ESXbVnj7vAs51Em1ji4dXYht$$1M7CmxsH2al$Qxq9L7pQ4FdWP_d8TpveDvonNhTFqFK_nlMnfPS73bSrZPml7BXhTiLmAQiLS_TdM5VCFAeK6kPX92uLuRBroTdxQ8SG84yrDy2O6h7wOWz2lr8o3KHM4gYqlGQADN7M9xJ2pKenYgTHoR6qfrYpnNrycgNdB5ffUTWGK8O6NJcFmtjoMAe$TuQaylxy7p4fjaigFhNhROeAZfSq4fjL$LFbkeZ1cq0ulzAqLnUt2u6dNe1JAaBPO4MRLnAL_iTfmzNsAeuJ0NGeD$1J$PMbhZXAoWZItPsohxl7mjrXs5mUv4ToairPq2vtrSojGZ2luoQ1QZC7SoQk_X7KAOQEtgJ7Z8628xgR0X7pJ$kkfVmDuAMP_sFPRklHKrXfYbN0xVgqhbFxDKLmlmybalMihFVf_9eLWEWlGImb1aj2Hkrf4NTYsfcAe6RYPnvHU4y$VU-&CONTENTTYPE=application/pdf&CONTENTDISPOSITION=Informe%20Interrupcion%20Procesamiento%20de%20Resultados%20TSE.pdf">released</a>, through the TSE, a "report" of what happened when the system went down on November 29th. According to Audisis, the system went down at 9:42 AM because it had filled up its database. This, by the way, contradicts President Juan Orlando Hernandez who claims it never crashed or became unavailable, just slow. <br />
<br />
What the graphic in the report shows is two server instances running with a 12 Terabyte SAN storage network, but only a 600 Gigabyte database allocated, and apparently shared between the two servers, which are clustered for high availability. It then took them 3.2 hours to expand the database to 1.8 Terabytes, bring up the servers, and perform a minimal data audit. The servers were up for production again at 1:08 pm and they began adding actas again at 1:10 pm. <br />
<br />
They continued to observe problems with database performance and decided to bring the system down again at 6 pm the same day. They increased the database size again; this time to 6 Terabytes. It took them 5 hours 30 minutes to reconfigure the system to use the additional capacity. They also added a 3rd server, this one configured with a 1.8 Terabyte database, to receive replicated data from the original database as a check of system integrity. The system returned to production around 11:30 pm that evening, almost 9 hours after it was halted.<br />
<br />
The first thing you do when you design a database is design the table
structure, then make a good faith estimate of how much storage space the
data will need. You always give a healthy overestimate because you
have to remove the database from use to increase its size. When you're processing election data, you don't want that to happen. With the
kinds of data we are dealing with here, you should be able to make very
precise estimates of how much storage space should be needed. Yet somehow they failed.<br />
<br />
I can't fathom how they filled up a 600 Gigabyte database, even with all the acta images from Presidential, Congressional, and Municipal elections and a complete voter roll stored in the database, I estimated it would only take about 34 Gigabytes of database storage to process the results of the election. I, after all, stored the complete results of the 2013 election in a database on my laptop without it taking up even 20 Gigabytes. Even with every conceivable kind of transaction logging turned on, I'd be hard pressed to design a database requiring 100 Gigabytes. What were they doing?<br />
<br />
Replication put simply is the ability to have two or more databases stay synchronized to provide greater availability. If they are in geographically different locations they can also be used for disaster recovery. Since the databases need to remain identical, normally they would need to be of the same size. So why would you replicate data from a 6 Terabyte database to a 1.8
Terabyte database? Doesn't that mean you didn't need the 6 Terabyte
database size? Or even the 1.8 Terabyte database size? Unclear from the report released by the TSE is whether the third server added already had a cloned database, so that only newly added data needed to be replicated, or whether the database was empty and needed to replicate all the existing data across a network. While replication is designed by database vendors to minimize its impact on servers, it still has a measurable impact.<br />
<br />
In many ways the report released by the TSE, supposedly compiled by Audisis, raises more questions than it answers. It provides an excuse for why the TSE systems went down for almost 10 hours, but the reason doesn't seem credible. RNShttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14197289255196253989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-34918980266227037802017-12-04T21:30:00.000-08:002017-12-04T21:30:19.073-08:00Analyses support doubts about vote and OAS disclaims results while police refuse to stop protestsOur headline may seem to juxtapose three unrelated things. But we think they have to be seen together. And actually, there's one more thing... and it's a doozy.<br />
<br />
To recap where the process stands: the TSE resumed counting vote tallies without representatives of the other parties. At the end, it says its count shows the incumbent president with a lead of around 55,000 votes. According to the TSE, the next step is for the parties to register challenges and petitions, within 10 days, and then within 20 days the TSE will certify an outcome to the election.<br />
<br />
(In <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/after-violent-night-honduran-tally-favors-president-in-disputed-vote-/4149068.html">reporting</a> this story, the Voice of America slipped up, describing Juan Orlando Hernández as "U.S.-backed"; the US doesn't normally take sides in a foreign election.) <br />
<br />
No one who has watched the situation unfold can be completely satisfied that the vote count has been transparent or without problems. Unexplained prolonged delays in posting numbers, computer crashes that received different explanations at different times, and above all, the weird behavior of the numbers before and after the more than day-long delay, have Hondurans and international observers alike worried.<br />
<br />
The OAS actually went so far in its <a href="http://www.oas.org/en/media_center/press_release.asp?sCodigo=E-089/17">preliminary report</a> to conclude that "the tight margin of the results, and the irregularities, errors and
systemic problems that have surrounded this election do not allow the
Mission to have certainty about the results".<br />
<br />
In the body of the report, the OAS expresses concerns about the vote counting process, noting some ballot boxes arrived open, missing documents, or without security. They also write that after initially counting ballots as they arrived, at some point the TSE "altered the order" to use "criteria that were not explained". So the vote counting switched from non-selective, to selective-- but we don't know <i>what</i> criteria were used to select votes to count.<br />
<br />
The OAS concluded that the only route out would be for the main candidates to negotiate an agreement to review the 1000+ poll tallies that were scrutinized for inconsistencies, as well as recount the 5000+ tallies counted after the initial phase of vote counting, when the trend changed, as well as do a complete recount of three departments (Lempira, La Paz, and Intibuca), rural states that had exaggeratedly high reported voter turnout. That is a complete endorsement of the position of the Alianza.<br />
<br />
Independently, <i>The Economist</i>, which previously published an <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21731725-recording-obtained-economist-suggests-it-may-be-merits-investigation-hondurass">article</a> about a tape they received apparently showing training of National Party operatives in ways to cheat, undertook a <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21731972-questions-about-integrity-vote-count-will-not-go-away-analysing-juan-orlando">statistical analysis</a> that gives support to Alianza complaints that the change in voting trends after the break in counting is statistically improbable.<br />
<br />
And that brings us to today's <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/04/honduras-election-board-refrains-from-declaring-winner-as-violence-continues">amazing development</a>: the police across Honduras, including the US supported militarized policing units, standing down and returning to their bases, refusing to follow the orders they received to stop protests. Under the state of exception declared by Juan Orlando Hernández, free circulation in the country was limited, a night time curfew was declared, and the armed forces and police were directed to remove protesters. What followed was violence, including deadly violence.<br />
<br />
Announcing their stand-down, the national police spokesman said "“We want peace, and we will not follow government orders – we’re tired of this". <br />
<br />When a sitting president who has concentrated power loses the ability to command the police, it is a signal of loss of control over the forces necessary to maintain dominance. Even if the TSE were to declare him the winner, it is not clear how governable Honduras would be for a president who took advantage of a somewhat ambiguous court ruling to seek a deeply unpopular second term in office.<br />
<br />
After the 2013 election, when Hernández received only 37% of the vote, the three parties that split the majority of the presidential votes did not cooperate as a concerted opposition. This time around, two of those parties entered an alliance and ran an agreed on presidential candidate. This time, the Liberal Party candidate who trailed in the polls has been vocal in saying his review of the poll tallies says the Alianza won, and has supported their calls for a recount, even a full 100% recount if needed.<br />
<br />
And here's the extra bit: <a href="https://twitter.com/AbogadaEspinoza/status/937869484915871744">according</a> to a Honduran lawyer, whose twitter profile says she is a Liberal Party member, election law actually demands a recount of some votes already.<br />
<br />
This isn't because of the uncertainties about counting the poll tallies that are already being debated.<br />
<br />
It's because the margin between candidates is less than the number of null votes. Null votes are those marked as invalid at the polling place, and thus not included in the totals on the poll tallies from which the central electoral authorities work.<br />
<br />
The law appears to require reviewing the null votes from the original ballots, if there are more of them than the margin between candidates. With around 55,000 votes officially between the two candidates, the number of votes marked null at the polling places is 135,000.<br />
<br />
The TSE is unlikely to do any of this. Unfortunately, we doubt Hernández will risk the victory he went so far to gain and agree to the kind of recount and scrutiny of the counting process that is being called for by the Alianza, the Liberal Party-- and the OAS.<br />
<br />
Until the army stands down and returns to its barracks. Unlikely, yes. But stranger things seem to be happening...<br />
<br />RAJhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00097415587406899236noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-79029516165549711782017-12-02T05:47:00.002-08:002017-12-02T07:00:36.125-08:00Government Curfew and Suspension of Right to MoveJuan Orlando Hernandez <a href="http://tiempo.hn/toque-queda-anuncia-gobierno/">declared</a> a curfew and suspended some constitutional rights of Hondurans yesterday in response to protests against the way his party is stealing the election.<br />
<br />
The first part of Hernandez's decree declares a 6 pm to 6 am curfew, and removes for 10 days the constitutional right of the people to freely move around the country. It exempts those working on the election (TSE employees, National and International Observers, Party Officials), cargo transport, Police, Military, and Diplomatic officials. Notice that the press is not free to move around or cover what's happening.<br />
<br />
The second part of the decree directs the military to take whatever measures it needs to maintain order, either separately or in conjunction with the police. It orders them to arrest and detain anyone who is out during the curfew, to read them their rights, and to maintain a list of those arrested at every military post.<br />
<br />
All those arrested will be held until the Prosecutor's office can charge them with a crime.<br />
<br />
The military is to clear all the roads, bridges, and public places seized by protesters. UPDATE: order from President this morning also calls for removing protesters from private property. This makes any protest a target for repression; goes beyond the official order.<br />
<br />
All government parties are to assist the military as requested.RNShttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14197289255196253989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-83949269515377363972017-11-30T19:36:00.000-08:002017-11-30T22:59:55.519-08:00Controversy about votes being "monitored"<i> UPDATED to add Santa Barbara and Cortes to list of departments where votes held for "monitoreo" favored the Alianza; and to note that the TSE has said it will count all votes, something we are seeing happen as we go through our list of tallies in monitoreo.</i><br />
<br />
Today. reports from Honduras indicated that the Tribunal Supremo Electoral was holding about 300,000 uncounted votes in a state of "monitoreo". They offered no explanation why. What was expressed was that these votes would <i>not</i> be counted before a winner was named in the now extremely tight contest between Juan Orlando Hernández and Salvador Nasralla.<br />
<br />
This alarmed international observers, who observed-- quite rightly-- that this many uncounted votes could well swing such a tight election. Both the OAS and the European Union publicly called on the TSE to count <i>all</i> the votes before designating a victor.<br />
<br />
Remarkably, this call was echoed by COHEP, the Honduran council of private enterprise.<br />
<br />
The EU in particular urged the TSE to take the time to count the votes, so that every vote was recognized, rather than hurry to end the election prematurely. UPDATE: as of 10 PM Tegucigalpa time, the TSE has said it will count all votes; and we are seeing the status change as we go through our list.<br />
<br />
We decided to review the vote tallies that are being held for greater scrutiny-- or monitoreo-- ourselves, to see if the suspicion many have, that this includes a preponderance of pro-Alianza voting, was upheld.<br />
<br />
It may take us a few hours. So far, though, in the Departments of Atlantida, Colon, Cortes, Santa Barbara, Valle and Yoro, the total of votes on these uncounted tallies for the Alianza is higher than the total for the National Party. (We are suspending this project at 1 AM Tegucigalpa time, as the TSE continues to update some of these. We will spot check other departments tomorrow...)<br />
<br />
There may be reasons these tallies require extra scrutiny. There are check sum features built into the tallies, so errors in transcription or uncertainties about numerals can be resolved in many cases. In others, the question would be if, for example, over-writing on one line should result in ignoring the votes for other candidates.<br />
<br />
So far, though, it is clear that this vote pool reserved from counting would contribute to shifting the margin back in the other direction.RAJhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00097415587406899236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-66536825703371152072017-11-30T06:35:00.000-08:002017-11-30T06:36:22.473-08:00Election update: four days since polling endedYesterday the Tribunal Supremo Electoral said it would make an announcement of final vote count at 3 AM local time Thursday.<br />
<br />
One assumes that was a projection based on the pace of counting, not (just) a way to try to avoid having people awake and paying attention. We did not set an alarm, which is just as well, since nothing was announced at 3 AM.<br />
<br />
In part, that may be due to an as-yet incompletely explained event that affected the computer equipment Wednesday evening. This took the entire TSE system down with about 82% of the votes counted-- just after the vote had swung slightly to favor Hernández.<br />
<br />
The explanation offered by David Matamoros, head of the electoral tribunal, was that this was a computer breakdown, due to the high volume of data being too much for the system used, requiring additional servers to come online. Continuing a pattern of uncertainty and confusion stemming from the Tribunal, another tribunal member, Marco Ramiro Lobo, was quoted as saying the system had been "hacked".<br />
<br />
Regardless of the actual cause, the break in the technology came at an unfortunate point in the process. Moments before, an agreement (since repudiated) was released, brokered by the OAS, in which the two candidates agreed to accept the numbers that the TSE was supposed to be reporting in the early morning.<br />
<br />
At 8 AM Thursday, Tegucigalpa time, the count is still stalled at just under 89%.<br />
<br />
The vote count posted favors Juan Orlando Hernández by 23,000, out of a total of 2.92 million votes-- less than 1% difference.<br />
<br />
Due to the procedures used by the electoral tribunal, it is impossible to be certain which polling places have yet to be tabulated. Where the 11% of votes still outstanding comes from is critical, because of the sharp differences in vote preference from region to region.<br />
<br />
For example, in the Department of Cortes, where Salvador Nasralla has won 56% of the 404,000 votes counted, we can compare to the 2013 results, which showed a total of 516,000 voters. The possibility of there being more than 100,000 votes still uncounted from this region could be enough to shift the totals, if the current 56%/32% split of vote there continued, as that would be a 24,000 vote advantage for Nasralla.<br />
<br />
This won't be settled until every vote has been counted. As the slow process drips on, Honduran citizens continue to have their trust in democratic institutions eroded.<br />
<br />
And it appears that the almost inevitable round of repression of protest has also begun, with twitter reporting (and photos confirming) the militarized police or military tear-gassing protesters assembled outside the location of the counting in Tegucigalpa last evening.<br />
<br />
It could be easy to lose sight of one clear lesson in this election: even if the incumbent president somehow holds on for a second term, against the popular rejection of presidential re-election seen in pre-election opinion surveys, the opposition campaign mobilized a far larger group of voters than international observers expected.<br />
<br />
They maintained the level of support seen in the 2013 election, when it was split between the component Partido Anti-corrupción and LIBRE parties that make up the present Alianza, thus allowing Hernández to win with only 37% of the 2013 vote.<br />
<br />
Whether denied office this year or not, the Alianza should be a political force to reckon with over the next four years, representing as many Honduran voters as the Partido Nacional, inheriting the role long played by the now diminished Partido Liberal as the counter to that political force.RAJhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00097415587406899236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-55482523581956229882017-11-29T15:19:00.002-08:002017-11-29T15:19:16.987-08:00Rodolfo Pastor Fasquelle on the election<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><i>¿Como? ¿Quienes les ganamos, a quienes, porque y para que? </i></b><br />
<b><i>How? Who won, over whom, why and what for? </i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<wbr></wbr> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
To my skeptical friends:</div>
<br />
The two parties of opposition have, since yesterday, counted all the poll tallies and the Alianza wins with the same 5% margin that was published by the Tribunal Supremo Electoral on Monday. Interesting that the victory could be so overwhelming when the polls by the Liberal and National parties, of private business and some by the Embassy continued foretelling the defeat of the Alianza up to a couple of weeks ago, that it would not manage to harvest more than 25%. The press in the USA followed, giving the win to JOH up to the very day of the elections. In Northern Europe, the same. On the one hand, important sectors there would prefer the status quo, to foretell his triumph was a way to support him. On the other hand, people were afraid to say it, and hid their determination. The rest is obvious.<br />
<br />
Certainly, it is an extreme case. In the electoral canton in which I am selected to vote and to supervise, in Las Carmenes, in San Pedro, Luis Zelaya didn't even get 10%. The Alianza won every polling place over JOH, almost 2:1, 60% to 30%, despite the efforts of the <i>mancha brava</i> to pull in votes first, and later to insert twisted votes, and in the end, to impede people from continuing to vote, by prematurely closing the gates. But even in the neighborhoods of the bourgeousie, in San Pedro Sula, the Alianza won the majority of polling places. And the margin of advantage for Salvador on the North Coast and the west-- with the most urbanized population-- will keep safe the final result. We can say the triumph of the Alianza, thanks to Salvador, and God help him. We lost the mayors. There is no local leadership of the Alianza!<br />
<br />
This stubbornness in hanging on to executive power is also interesting, which is not only personal to the despot. The first news indicated that <i>los cachos</i> (the conservatives) would hold many municipalities and-- thanks to the atavistic slate-- an important part of the Legislature. This instinctive tenacity of the <i>mancha brava</i> and total lack of responsibility is a dangerous bet, because JOH couldn't govern with 60% of public opinion against him and could lose everything. This could empowered Nasralla in his position to call for a strike and a Constitutional convention now, and it would be over. They could disappear. As happened with the Partido Liberal.<br />
<br />
Clearly, there is not on this side less will to defend the conquest, and there are more of us. Who won? Everyone! Beyond Honduras-- that might finally truly reconcile itself, beginning with the recognition of that necessity-- Nasralla won of course, and the recomposed opposition, when LIBRE became the largest party with Mel at its head. Those who asked for the vote and those who, without being candidates, worked to attract them won, as -- in the end-- definitively, we won the voters. Some electoral tribunal officials [Marco Ramiro Lobo] will gain in general recognition, although the performance of the TSE in the end was calamitous. Never again! At the moment, the militia is gaining credibility!<br />
<br />
We are defeating their greater resources and their better organization with our grip and enthusiasm. We are winning by overcoming indolence, indifference, negativity, the inertia of apathy, both our own and that of the voter. Overcoming in some cases the fear derived from the pre-electoral violence or the impression that the triumph of fraud was inevitable. Attaining the vote, with our own means, at times also with some sacrifice. Voting massively with a level of participation that hasn't been seen since the 1980s. We <i>cusucos, </i>armadillos, were too much for the fraud. The voters favored us with a majority very much higher than the official figure.<br />
<br />
The notable failure of the eternal traps is also interesting. That, at least in the urban ambit, these don't work anymore. Could fraud influence the count of the totality of the vote for congress members, that the <i>cachos</i>, better organized, count on their own and in their manner? Could be. But the principal problem there is that there is no binding theme like re-election, and we voters of the Alianza are more critical and rebellious than the <i>cachurecos</i>. Not that there wasn't, it's clear there was, cheating. It is tiring to list them. Over in the lands of Fito Irías, famous for his gadgets, various activists were detained filling ballot boxes, afterward sent via helicopter to the site in Tegucigalpa, where at the last moment the <i>mancha brava</i> tried to rob ballot boxes. Here in El Ocotillo there were detected and detained bad citizens who were creating <b><i>el trencito</i></b>, a little train: one entered the polling station with hidden marked votes, deposited those that he carried and pulled out another group of sealed ballots, for the next and charged... they fished. Everywhere there appeared marked as deceased the people that someone supposed were ours. In El Carmen there was a a voter who was asked for his vote and ID, to photograph his vote to go out and sell it. Angry young men hurried by the well-paid activists who walked from midday on with money and some cases of falsified ID cards paying people to vote with them in the polling places where they controlled the oversight, which was discovered when-- later-- the actual owners of the identities arrived to vote, finding that someone had already voted for them, living a fingerprint "<i>por no saber firmar"</i> (not knowing how to write).<br />
<br />
It wasn't defining. Now what before, on various occasions was just PR of the system was-- really-- a <i>civic festival</i>. There was a complicity among a great diversity of classes, of ages, of affiliations. All people, determined to "remove JOH". Great happiness. And after, equal worry, widely shared. (The manipulation by technicians of the TSE is another role. Almost incredible.)<br />
<br />
Over whom did we win? Over JOH the dictator, because he undertook to make it something personal, and his gang, the deceitful cahirecos and their <i>mancha brava</i>, the imposters who see visions, the Cardinal, who was making an electoral intervention until the last minute, denouncing <i>la intolerable
injerencia extranjera</i> (the intolerable foreign interference), we won over the bosses Flores and Micheletti, who have never lost everything, and the corrupt journalists and the media companies that misinform and mistake ratings for agreement, over the foreign lobbyists that have come to do so much damage, and also, J.J. Rendón and Arcadia lost.<br />
<br />
Why did we win? It wasn't just that Salvador attracted voters or that the people identified with our proposals. Nor was it only a vote against re-election. We won because the people got fed up with JOH. With the omnipresence and almost omnipotence of JOH. They punished him as vain and prepotent, as abusive and cynical, and they will return to do it when it's needed. They voted to restore the agreed upon order and clean up the government. Those of us connected wish to preserve a space for our liberty, menaced by the dismantling of the state of law and sufficient guarantees. <br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><i>La gente lee de otro modo, pero</i></b> <b><i>cree en su voto</i></b>.<br />
The people read in another way, but they believe in their vote. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
[our translation] </div>
RAJhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00097415587406899236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-36130601937211625102017-11-28T21:55:00.000-08:002017-11-28T21:55:20.280-08:00How Cartels Affected the Vote, 2013 and 2017The presence/absence of drug cartels in certain communities radically corrupted the reported votes in the 2013 election. These were areas that overwhelmingly supported Juan Orlando Hernández in 2013.<br />
<br />
Since then, a number of drug cartels have been the focus of activities that have disrupted them, in places like the western Honduran Department of Copan, where the border with Guatemala was the target of cartel activities.<br />
<br />
We wondered, has the disruption of drug cartels changed the voting landscape in the 2017 election?<br />
<br />
Below we provide a comparison between some key places in the Department of Copan in 2013 and 2017. <br />
<br />
(Note, this analysis is based on partial returns for 2017. I used numbers as available at 10:48 pm Honduras time Tuesday.)<br />
<br />
<b>Santa Rosa de Copan</b><br />
<br />
First, lets look at a town without much known corruption, Santa Rosa de Copan. Here's how the voting broke down by party in 2013:<br />
<br />
Liberal Party 19.27%<br />
National Party 29.3%<br />
Libre 32.58%<br />
PAC 10.36%<br />
<br />
These total approximately 91.45% of the reported vote, with smaller parties making up the rest of the voting.<br />
<br />
In 2017, with the breakup of PAC and the formation of the Alianza by Libre, PINU, and a large part of what had been PAC, the 2017 results so far look like this:<br />
<br />
Liberal Party 11.7%<br />
National Party 30.69%<br />
Alianza 56.66%<br />
<br />
These make up 99.05% of the total vote, with smaller parties splitting the fractional percent remaining.<br />
<br />
What this shows is that National Party support here remained about the same as in 2013. The Liberal Party lost support to the Alianza, and the Alianza combined the original support from Libre, PAC, and some of the small parties like PINU, in addition to drawing away 7% of the Liberal Party's vote.<br />
<br />
<b>El Paraiso, Copan</b><br />
<br />
In 2013 the Ardon brothers ran the AA Cartel out of El Paraiso, Copan. <br />
<br />
Hugo Ardon, one of the founding brothers, was the Election campaign head for the National Party in Western Honduras after running the Fondo Vial (road building fund) and giving government contracts to the Cachiros, the Handels, and his friends, the Valle Valle cartels.<br />
<br />
Alexander Ardon, Hugo's younger brother, was the mayor of El Paraiso. In 2014 both brothers are thought to have escaped Honduras to avoid capture, leaving the cartel in the hands of younger family members. In 2016 the Ardon cartel was thought to have been dismantled with the arrest of two brothers in Morazan, Yoro.<br />
<br />
In 2013, El Paraiso, Copan had an alarming number of vote interference stories published in the International press. We covered some of them here. In 2013 it reported voting like this:<br />
<br />
Liberal Party 3.0%<br />
National Party 88.85%<br />
Libre 6.3%<br />
PAC 1.37%<br />
<br />
This accounted for 99.52% of the total vote from El Paraiso in 2013.<br />
<br />
In 2017, with the relaxation of drug cartel control of the region, voting looks like this:<br />
<br />
Liberal Party 16.96%<br />
National Party 50%<br />
Alianza 32.14%<br />
<br />
This accounts for 99.1% of the reported votes. <br />
<br />
The National Party appears to have lost a lot of support between 2013 and 2017.<br />
<br />
These may well have been fraudulent votes, as El Paraiso in 2013 had several MER that had overvotes where more people voted than were registered, with turnout up to 156%. A correlation was noted between the presence of drug cartels and over-voting favoring the National Party. Removing the drug cartels definitely had an effect here.<br />
<br />
Also relevant, in 2013 Libre and PAC poll watchers were actively suppressed by individuals with guns. This year, no active voter suppression was reported.<br />
<br />
<b>La Florida</b><br />
<br />
La Florida was a town under the control of the Valle Valle cartel in 2013. Unlike El Paraiso's cartel, the Valle Valler were reportedly supporters of the Liberal Party. Only certain aldeas in the municipality were under their control, though, and while those aldeas voted for the Liberal candidate in 2013, the municipio as a whole voted with the National Party.<br />
<br />
In 2013, La Florida voted like this:<br />
<br />
Liberal Party 27.11%<br />
National Party 40.34%<br />
Libre 27.99%<br />
Pac 4.1%<br />
<br />
accounting for 99.54% of the vote.<br />
<br />
In 2017 the voting is quite different:<br />
<br />
Liberal Party 32.7%<br />
National Party 27.19%<br />
Alianza 39.71%<br />
<br />
accounting for 99.6% of the vote. <br />
<br />
The Liberal Party vote increased 6% while the National Party lost 13%. The Alianza managed to pick up votes beyond those gained by its two founder parties in 2013, picking up a further 7% from the National Party vote. <br />
<br />
This could well reflect a readjustment of the vote following the removal of cartel influence from the region.<br />
<br />
The patterns seen in these three cases tend to confirm what we and others argued in the wake of the 2013 election, that in addition to other distorting factors, drug cartels were part of the story.<br />
<br />
With that influence removed, we have a snapshot of a region where the National Party has slipped, and the Alianza has gained over its partner parties (Libre and PAC).<br />
<br />
While not our main goal when we started this, these three selected municipios demonstrate how variable voting is this year, from place to place. This lends support to suspicions of many that the continuing reporting of vote tallies that favor the incumbent, Juan Orlando Hernández, would be unlikely to happen if the order of counting were random. You might get one municipio going 50% for the National Party, like El Paraiso, but equally you might get vote counts with the Alianza in the lead.RNShttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14197289255196253989noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-26265103167917259172017-11-27T18:23:00.002-08:002017-11-27T18:23:22.858-08:00New numbers quietly added to the TSE websiteAt 4:17, a tweet from TSE head David Matamoros caused a slight ripple of concern; he said "There are still 7500 summaries of polling places to scrutinize, that represent some 2 million votes":<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“Nos faltan unas 7,500 actas por escrutar que representan unos dos
millones de votos y por eso se avanzará en los resultados en la medida
que se vayan recibiendo".</blockquote>
<br />
If there actually were another 2 million <i>votes</i> to count, election results might be open to considerable change. After all, as of the TSE's 2 AM press briefing, they had only counted about 1.99 million votes. So that would mean there were more votes not yet counted than already included. But in fact, the TSE has affirmed that 59% of the votes have been counted.<br />
<br />
So what is happening here? Let's try explaining, using the numbers from the TSE site, which by 7 PM tonight reflected additional counting.<br />
<br />
In the following table, we list the total votes counted in the more than 10,500 actas (results from individual polling places) reviewed so far. These polling places had a total of 3.6 million possible voters; 2.02 million votes were actually reported, for a participation rate of 58% (suggesting this election is a normal one for Honduras).<br />
<br />
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<colgroup><col style="mso-width-source: userset; width: 94pt;" width="94"></col>
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; width: 70pt;" width="70"></col>
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; width: 77pt;" width="77"></col>
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; width: 69pt;" width="69"></col>
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; width: 84pt;" width="84"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="oa1" height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; width: 94pt;" width="94">
</td>
<td class="oa1" style="width: 70pt;" width="70">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: center; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">Votes</span></div>
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: center; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">(millions)</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa1" style="width: 77pt;" width="77">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: center; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">Registered
voters (millions)</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa1" style="width: 69pt;" width="69">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: center; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">actas</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa1" style="width: 84pt;" width="84">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: center; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">Participation
rate</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="oa2" height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; width: 94pt;" width="94">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: left; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">counted</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa3" style="width: 70pt;" width="70">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: is-IS; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">2.020682</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa3" style="width: 77pt;" width="77">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: hr-HR; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">3.617484</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa3" style="width: 69pt;" width="69">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: ru-RU; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">10,503</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa4" style="width: 84pt;" width="84">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: center; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: mr-IN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">58%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="oa5" height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; width: 94pt;" width="94">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: left; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">uncounted</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa6" style="width: 70pt;" width="70">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: is-IS; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">unknown</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa6" style="width: 77pt;" width="77">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: hr-HR; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">2.429389</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa6" style="width: 69pt;" width="69">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: is-IS; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">7,625</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa7" style="width: 84pt;" width="84">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: is-IS; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">unknown</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="oa8" height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; width: 94pt;" width="94">
</td>
<td class="oa9" style="width: 70pt;" width="70">
</td>
<td class="oa8" style="width: 77pt;" width="77">
</td>
<td class="oa8" style="width: 69pt;" width="69">
</td>
<td class="oa10" style="width: 84pt;" width="84">
</td>
</tr>
<tr height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="oa11" height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; width: 94pt;" width="94">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: left; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">Total
electorate</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa12" style="width: 70pt;" width="70">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: hr-HR; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">unknown</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa12" style="width: 77pt;" width="77">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: fi-FI; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">6.046873</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa12" style="width: 69pt;" width="69">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: fi-FI; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">18,128</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa12" style="width: 84pt;" width="84">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
Until those remaining actas are counted, no one knows what the number of votes there will be; Matamoros is referring to the number of <i>potential voters</i>. To reach 2 million votes out of the remaining 2.4 million registered voters would require over-voting of <i><b>83%.</b></i> While (apparently fraudulent) over voting was one of the tactics used in the last election, it did not take place on such a massive scale. There is no reason to think that the remaining actas somehow include a higher proportion of motivated voters than those already counted, from the cities, where get out the vote campaigns took place.<br />
<br />
So let's assume Matamoros meant only that there were 2 million <i>registered voters</i> whose chance to vote is included in the actas still to be counted. He doesn't want to disenfranchise them with a premature conclusion.<br />
<br />
What might we expect when these votes actually <i>are</i> counted?<br />
<br />
The TSE website as of 7 PM Monday presents new numbers, compared to the 2 AM baseline. They show Nasralla and Hernández both gaining votes, with Nasralla adding 2,000 votes to his lead.<br />
<br />
Because so much of the vote has already been counted, even though the TSE added 30,000 votes overall, the percentages of each of the two leading candidates remained the same.<br />
<br />
Here's those numbers:<br />
<br />
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<col style="mso-width-source: userset; width: 47pt;" width="47"></col>
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; width: 81pt;" width="81"></col>
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<td class="oa1" height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; width: 59pt;" width="59">
</td>
<td class="oa1" style="width: 58pt;" width="58">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: center; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">votes</span></div>
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<td class="oa1" style="width: 47pt;" width="47">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: center; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">vote share</span></div>
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<td class="oa1" style="width: 81pt;" width="81">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: center; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">change from 2 AM</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="oa2" height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; width: 59pt;" width="59">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: left; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">Nasralla</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa3" style="width: 58pt;" width="58">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: is-IS; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">868,473</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa3" style="width: 47pt;" width="47">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: mr-IN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">45%</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa3" style="width: 81pt;" width="81">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">up
13,000</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="oa4" height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; width: 59pt;" width="59">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: left; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">Hernández</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa5" style="width: 58pt;" width="58">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: uk-UA; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">772,458</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa5" style="width: 47pt;" width="47">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: mr-IN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">40%</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa5" style="width: 81pt;" width="81">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">up
11,000</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Unless there is a drastic increase in the proportion of registered voters exercising their rights to vote in the outstanding districts, most of which are in rural areas, we will expect about the same proportion of voting (currently 58%). This would add not 2 million, but 1.4 million more votes-- for a total electorate of 3.4 million, which is what we were projecting informally, based on our knowledge of previous elections.<br />
<br />
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1120; width: 393px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-source: userset; width: 94pt;" width="94"></col>
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; width: 70pt;" width="70"></col>
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; width: 77pt;" width="77"></col>
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; width: 69pt;" width="69"></col>
<col style="mso-width-source: userset; width: 84pt;" width="84"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="oa1" height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; width: 94pt;" width="94">
</td>
<td class="oa1" style="width: 70pt;" width="70">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: center; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">Votes</span></div>
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: center; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">(millions)</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa1" style="width: 77pt;" width="77">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: center; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">Registered
voters (millions)</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa1" style="width: 69pt;" width="69">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: center; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: italic; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">actas</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa1" style="width: 84pt;" width="84">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: center; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">Participation
rate</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="oa2" height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; width: 94pt;" width="94">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: left; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">counted</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa3" style="width: 70pt;" width="70">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: is-IS; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">2.020682</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa3" style="width: 77pt;" width="77">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: hr-HR; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">3.617484</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa3" style="width: 69pt;" width="69">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: ru-RU; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">10,503</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa4" style="width: 84pt;" width="84">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: center; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: mr-IN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">58%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="oa5" height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; width: 94pt;" width="94">
</td>
<td class="oa6" style="width: 70pt;" width="70">
</td>
<td class="oa6" style="width: 77pt;" width="77">
</td>
<td class="oa6" style="width: 69pt;" width="69">
</td>
<td class="oa7" style="width: 84pt;" width="84">
</td>
</tr>
<tr height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="oa8" height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; width: 94pt;" width="94">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: left; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">Uncounted</span></div>
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: left; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">projected</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa9" style="width: 70pt;" width="70">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: is-IS; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">1.409045</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa9" style="width: 77pt;" width="77">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: hr-HR; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">2.429389</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa9" style="width: 69pt;" width="69">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: is-IS; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">7,625</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa10" style="width: 84pt;" width="84">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: center; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">58</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: mr-IN; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: black; mso-style-textfill-type: solid;">%</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="oa11" height="29" style="height: 29.2pt; width: 94pt;" width="94">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: left; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: en-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">Total
electorate</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa12" style="width: 70pt;" width="70">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: hr-HR; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">3.429727</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa12" style="width: 77pt;" width="77">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: fi-FI; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">6.046873</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa12" style="width: 69pt;" width="69">
<div style="direction: ltr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: right; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: bottom; word-break: normal;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 14.0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; language: fi-FI; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-color-index: 0; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt; mso-style-textfill-fill-alpha: 100.0%; mso-style-textfill-fill-color: white; mso-style-textfill-fill-themecolor: background1; mso-style-textfill-type: solid; mso-text-raise: 0%; vertical-align: baseline;">18,128</span></div>
</td>
<td class="oa12" style="width: 84pt;" width="84">
</td>
</tr>
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<br />
Could the so-far uncounted voters have a different profile than seen to date? Sure-- but here, remember how Marco Ramiro Lobo defended the late hour of the first official results from the TSE: they waited until repeated counting of actas wasn't changing the margin of 5% between the candidates. <br />
<br />
The TSE doesn't expect a change. The numbers will go up; but to erase a lead of almost 100,000 votes, there would have to be very unusual voting patterns.<br />
<br />RAJhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00097415587406899236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-47545990068409030792017-11-27T12:43:00.002-08:002017-11-27T12:43:18.056-08:00What may be coming in the Honduran electionHonduras' <i>Proceso Digital</i> has a <a href="http://www.proceso.hn/actualidad/7-actualidad/la-tendencia-presidencial-se-mantiene-marco-ramiro-lobo.html">story</a> today based on an interview with a member of the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE), Marco Ramiro Lobo. The headline says it all: "La tendencia presidencial se mantiene".<br />
<br />
<b><i>The presidential projection is staying the same</i></b>.<br />
<br />
Salvador Nasralla of the Alianza, the founder of the Partido
Anti-corrupción, is maintaining a lead of 45.17% to 40.21% over the sitting
president, Juan Orlando Hernández, who pushed his Partido Nacional into
an unprecedented and unpopular campaign for re-election.<br />
Early this morning, the TSE reported tabulated votes for about 1,992,128 voters, of which about 95% were valid.<br />
<br />
Ramiro Lobo confirms what has been reported based on the information
given to the Alianza (and other parties) by the TSE: the vote count is
complete for the major cities, which on-the ground reports say all went for Nasralla.<br />
<br />
This raises the question-- with the majority of the votes counted, what, if anything, might change the current projection?<br />
<br />
First in the fears of many Hondurans is corruption in vote counting, either locally or nationally. <br />
<br />
The TSE counts votes from each individual <i>mesa electoral</i>, or polling place (MER). The ballots are counted at the polling place, and a report, called an <i>acta</i>, is sent to the TSE, along with the sealed ballot box, which allows for checking the count made originally. <br />
<br />
This transmission chain introduces multiple points where people feared voting fraud could take place.<br />
<br />
In the 2013 election, suspected fraud ranged from, at the local level, not counting votes that were actually cast; to changing the numbers transmitted to the TSE; to the infamous and clearly demonstrated pattern of "over-voting", where in a few districts, a much higher turnout was reported-- sometimes more than 100% of the registered voters.<br />
<br />
Each MER is supposed to have the same number of potential voters. If more voters turn out in some polling places, the proportion of votes theoretically could diverge from the national tendency. This happened in 2013, and the over votes went largely to the National Party candidate, Juan Orlando Hernández.<br />
<br />
This suspicious pattern was detected in 2013 by a distributed social media campaign to recalculate the totals from the published <i>actas</i> (<a href="http://hondurasculturepolitics.blogspot.com/2013/12/voto-social-and-transparency.html">an effort in which we participated</a>).<br />
<br />
This time around, the TSE did not publish those documents right away. But it did share them with the political parties. The Alianza set up its own recount process in anticipation of similar problems. It has not yet reported any.<br />
<br />
The fact that the Alianza counts and those later confirmed by the TSE agree goes a long way to assuring that outright vote alteration is not happening after the <i>actas</i> reach Tegucigalpa.<br />
<br />
So we have a couple of other possibilities to consider. First, the TSE said last night that it is still waiting for delivery of the sealed ballot boxes and counts from some places. These would by definition be from remote locations. They could, in theory, have different political views than the urban population.<br />
<br />
But it would take an enormous swing towards Hernández to shift a 5% lead with only 40% of the vote still to count. And in the vote totals from more rural places posted by the TSE so far, this does not seem to be happening.<br />
<br />
With the major cities already reported, the polling places not yet counted must be from the primarily rural
areas of the country-- the northeast coast, inland Olancho, and
southwest Lenca region. There are a few ways that this vote might shift
the picture, but all of them seem unlikely, and the evidence available doesn't support expecting them to radically alter the pattern that has emerged.<br />
<br />
<br />
First, Ramiro Lobo said explicitly that as the TSE is continuing its count, the original tendency established based on about 10,000 <i>actas</i> is being maintained.<br />
<br />
Ramiro Lobo's statement to the press seems to be primarily to counter questions raised about why it took the TSE until 2 AM to report preliminary results. He says that when they counted the first 1500 <i>actas</i>, they had a statistical tie, so they kept counting <i>until the difference was 5% and kept staying the same.</i><br />
<br />
In other words, the TSE doesn't expect things to change, and is not seeing changes as it continues to count the remaining <i>actas</i>, including those from more rural locations.<br />
Even Juan Orlando Hernández, while still claiming his own information has him 7 points ahead of Nasralla, has <a href="http://www.proceso.hn/proceso-electoral-2017/36-proceso-electoral/juan-orlando-hernandez-se-declara-ganador-de-las-elecciones.html">now shifted</a> from citing exit polling (done by a firm controlled by a former member of his government) to emphasizing that the TSE "recognizes" that its count is not "conclusive".<br />
<br />
His statements may point to what he is hoping will change what seems like an inevitable loss. He is quoted as counter-factually claimed that the TSE had only counted 20% of the vote, when they reported having counted 59% of the vote. The comments reported have him claiming the pro-Nasralla counts reflect only votes from the two main cities (San Pedro Sula and Tegucigalpa). His hopes, it would seem, are tied to the country-side.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately for these hopes, his math makes no sense.<br />
<br />
The population of the top 20 Honduran cities in 2017 was 2,236,731.
These top 20 cities only make up about 25% of the population of Honduras. With 59% of the vote counted by the TSE, that should mean that about 34% of the rural districts have already been counted-- and again, as Ramiro Lobo notes, continued counting is not changing the pattern.<br />
<br />
So could it be that there is a <i>specific</i> rural area where Hernández is expecting either a higher turnout (over-voting, like the pattern that benefited him in 2013), or a radically higher proportion of the vote to go his way?<br />
<br />
The posted data from the TSE show his highest support coming in the rural departments of the southwest part of the country. In Lempira, he currently holds a 58% to 33% advantage, and in Intibuca, a 52% to 30% advantage.<br />
<br />
But the absolute number of voters in these departments is small-- a total of 47,000 reported from Lempira, and 37,000 from Intibuca. And by all accounts, this is where he can be expected to do best, as a native son.<br />
<br />
In scenarios we have tried out, Hernández would need to have high over-voting in all remaining districts <i>and</i> have them vote on the lines of his core constituency to pull out a win so narrow it would be a statistical tie.<br />
<br />
Other rural areas that the TSE is reporting already depart from any winning model. In Olancho, with 96,000 votes counted, the Alianza is ahead with 45% of the vote to the Partido Nacional's 44%. In Gracias a Dios, the vast eastern department, only 835 votes have been counted, with the Alianza and Partido Nacional each receiving about 33% of the vote. For Hernández, tying in the rural portions of Honduras is simply not enough to win.<br />
<br />
Thus we come to our final observations about what may be coming in this election.<br />
<br />
First, with the collapse of any opposition in the Honduran print press, the role of social media has increase dramatically, <br />
<br />
On Twitter, get out the vote efforts were undertaken by Alianza supporters as "Ope<a href="http://proceso.hn/proceso-electoral-2017/38-politica-nacional/alianza-de-oposicion-apela-a-la-operacion-cusuco-para-ganar-las-elecciones-generales.html">ration Cusuco</a>".<br />
<br />
An independent collective of community media calling itself "<a href="https://guancascodemedios.org/">Guancasco de Medios</a>" also used Twitter to consolidate and share electoral information.<br />
<br />
The imagery in both cases is fundamentally Honduran: cusuco is the local name for the armadillo, whose tenacity in digging in is legendary-- like hunting a cusuco, participants went to the houses of those who might not have otherwise come out to vote. The guancasco is the ancient Lenca practice of inter-community visits accompanied by ceremonies, through which peer to peer politics were transacted.<br />
<br />
Poll watchers for the Alianza also used Twitter, to report vote totals they recorded as they concluded their work. This kind of publishing of vote totals, while unofficial, helps limit how the final official count could change-- or at the very least, would require justifications that the TSE does not, remarkably, seem inclined to even propose.<br />
<br />
There is no reason to simply accept the claims by TSE officials to be disinterested stewards of the franchise. But there is every reason to see them as unwilling to take political heat when emerging voting patterns already circulating did not support the claims made by the sitting president.<br />
<br />
Finally, the organization of poll watchers and national and international observers has to have changed the atmosphere. There are reports of violence against political activists, and international observers have not necessarily been welcomed.<br />
<br />
But along with the role of social media, the presence of poll watchers and international and national observers has made it harder for real fraud to be carried out-- at least as reflected in results so far.RAJhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00097415587406899236noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-59627227258515580032017-11-27T00:04:00.000-08:002017-11-27T09:58:46.976-08:00The TSE reports... the Alianza is in the leadIt took them until almost 2 in the morning in Honduras, but finally, the TSE has made an official statement.<br />
<br />
Not calling the election: they will continue to count votes until they are finished.<br />
<br />
But with 59% of the votes counted officially by the TSE, the reported proportion of votes is:<br />
<br />
Salvador Nasralla 45.7%<br />
Juan Orlando Hernández 40.21%<br />
<br />
A couple of things to note:<br />
<br />
The TSE also said it may be Thursday before they get to some of the votes. They have yet to post the vote totals on their website, which will allow us to assess which parts of the country have been counted, and see whether the votes not yet counted could change the outcome.<br />
<br />
At the same time, to come out with such a strong and marked difference in favor of Nasralla might suggest that the TSE thinks this pattern is likely to hold up; otherwise, we would expect them to maintain a more cautious approach, perhaps reporting a lower proportion of the counted votes with a tighter field.<br />
<br />
The next few days will be tense and it is critical that international observers keep watching.RAJhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00097415587406899236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-44015957594907910352017-11-26T22:14:00.001-08:002017-11-27T09:59:31.475-08:00With 68% [updated] of the vote counted...Alianza candidate Salvador Nasralla just held a press conference in which-- drawing on data that parties receive from the TSE-- 78% of the actas (reports of votes from individual districts) have been counted-- and they show him with almost a 5% lead over Juan Orlando Hernández.<br />
<br />
NotiBomba has tweeted that the US Embassy is trying to persuade Hernández to concede (not clear what their source would be).<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, the TSE itself maintains its silence.<br />
<br />
UPDATE: <i>Proceso Digital</i> <a href="http://www.proceso.hn/actualidad/7-actualidad/nasralla-dice-gana-la-eleccion-en-base-a-las-actas-fisicas.html">covered</a> the Nasralla press conference. They quote what he said extensively; here's our translation:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "geneva"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">"It's the first time in history that the Tribunal Supremo Electoral hasn't provided results [by the time he was speaking, midnight], but we have our own computing center and it says that with 68.4% of the actas, that is, 4,259,107 of the 6 million that the Tribunal said could vote, the actas are there”, said Nasralla.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "geneva"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">He added that “of those that represent 68.4% of the actas, I have 45.4%, against 40.6% the the current president has, that's a
difference of 4.8%, that represents 106,000 votes difference”.</span></div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "geneva"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Nasralla explained that two hours ago it said that there was a difference of 30,000
votes and that in the passing of the hours that progressed to 106,000.</span></div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "geneva"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“In light of the fact that this tendency has not changed, I can say to you that I am the new president of Honduras. I want to thank those that defended the vote”, he said.</span></div>
</blockquote>
RAJhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00097415587406899236noreply@blogger.com0