A friend dropped the 5th CESPAD survey of public opinion in Honduras in our in box, this one for July, 2013. CESPAD is the Centro de Estudios para la Democracia, and came into existence in 2010. Since then they've been performing polling on Honduran public sentiment.
In this case we're talking about a survey of 1,440 individuals over 18 years of age in a probabilistic, stratified, multi-stage sample between July 21 and July 31 of 2013. They report margin of error of plus or minus 2.5%.
The survey focused on a number of topics. This post will report on the sections about the November, 2013 elections; there will be more on other topics to come.
CESPAD found that these people plan to vote.
Overall, 80.3% of those surveyed said they intend to vote. Honduras typically has a voter turnout around 50-55%.
CESPAD asked respondents who planned to vote what party they would vote for in 2013. Here's the results
Libre 26.7%
National 24.1%
Liberal 16.6%
PAC 10.2%
Nobody 12.3%
No Answer 8.6%
Every other party was less than one percent (Sorry Romeo!).
Over the last two years of polling, CESPAD found that the number of people who would vote for the National Party and Liberal Party has steadily declined. In the current election, the percentage who intend to vote for Libre and Partido Anti-Corrupción (PAC) take up the slack.
The popularity of each party's presidential candidate is similar to, but not the same as, the party popularity:
Xiomara Castro (Libre) 28.0%
Juan Orlando Hernandez (National) 20.7%
Mauricio Villeda (Liberal) 13.7%
Salvador Nasralla (PAC) 11.7%
Undecided 17.8%
Nobody 6.8%
Romeo Vasquez (Alianza) 0.7%
Orles Anibal (Christian Democrat) 0.3%
Andres Pavon (FAPER) 0.2%
Jorge Aguilar ( PINU) 0.1%
Like other polling, CESPAD's numbers indicate that Hondurans could elect a president in November who receives far less than 50% of the vote. This could create serious complications for governing, depending on the composition of the Congress.
CESPAD notes that this is essentially a two-person race between Xiomara Castro and Juan Orlando Hernandez, both of whom have seen rising support over the last six months. CESPAD concludes that the data suggest a reconfiguration of electoral politics is underway in Honduras, but the trends aren't yet definitive.
More interesting still is where each candidate's support comes from.
Slightly less than half of Liberal Party members surveyed said they would vote for the Party's candidate, Mauricio Villeda. Xiomara Castro picks up support from 23.1% of them, and Undecided/Nobody a further 16.7%. Nasralla and Hernandez pick up minor amounts of support here as well.
The National Party is a bit more cohesive, with 58.4% of National Party members saying they'd vote for Juan Orlando Hernandez, the party's candidate, and a further 20.8% Undecided or Nobody. Villeda, Castro, and Nasralla pick up minor amounts of support among National Party members.
PAC is still more coherent than the National Party, with 81.9% of party members saying they will vote for their party's candidate, Salvador Nasralla, and a further 11% being either undecided or planning to vote for none of the above. Villeda, Hernandez, and Castro each pick up single digit support among PAC members.
Libre appears to be the most cohesive party, with 94% of its members going to vote for Xiomara Castro, the party candidate, and only 3.8% undecided. Villeda, Hernandez, and Vasquez each pick up support from less than one percent of Libre's members.
CESPAD concludes that a real effect of the 2009 coup has been to disrupt the two party system in Honduras.
Party fidelity appears to be the casualty, in line with party fidelity trends in other latin american countries. Only a third of respondents said they would never vote for a party they didn't belong to. Over 50% said they might vote for the candidate of a party they didn't belong to, and nearly 20% said for sure they would be doing so this time.
The better educated the voter, the more likely they intend to vote for Castro or Nasralla. The traditional parties do best with those with little or no education.
The take-away from this poll, as in others, is that the real race is between Libre's Xiomara Castro and Juan Orlando Hernandez of the National Party. Villeda does not seem to be a viable candidate, and he loses a nearly a quarter of his party to Xiomara Castro. Party loyalty suffered in the National Party as well, and Hernandez has less than 60% of his party behind him. In order to win the presidential election, he will need stronger support from Nationalists.
Nasralla is running well with a consistent 11-15% of the electorate supporting him-- not enough to be elected, but enough to suggest his platform resonates.
These numbers
bear no resemblance to those reported by Paradigma for July. Both polls show the candidates in
the same order. The differences in absolute numbers may lie in how questions were asked, and the sampling strategy of each polling group.
Paradigma now reports the results of its August survey. It shows Libre, the National Party, and the Liberal party numbers up, with Nasralla and none of the above falling:
None of the Above 27.0%
Xiomara Castro 22.9%
J Orlando Hernandez 19.9%
Salvador Nasralla 10.3%
Mauricio Villeda 9.4%
Variations of 2-3% from the July poll results are within the margin of error of the poll, so none of these changes are significant.
Neither polling company has been through an election cycle in Honduras yet, so we don't know how they'll fare against actual election results.
All the polls, though, are telling the same story: a fractured electorate, a surging new party (Libre), and a sinking old one (Liberal).
Showing posts with label Andres Pavon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Andres Pavon. Show all posts
Monday, September 9, 2013
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Mobilization and Repression on Independence Day
[Revised: minor edits to correct grammar and spelling]
Two stories in El Tiempo tell the story:
The first story, time-stamped 9:41 am reported that "tens of thousands of people" marched in San Pedro Sula, attempting to stop at the statue of 19th century founding father Francisco Morazán before proceeding to the lovely main plaza of San Pedro where a concert was planned.
The second headline, posted at 11:23 am, sadly, leads a story of brutal violence used to shut down a concert with popular pro-Resistance performers, Cafe Guancasco. The photos and videos are shocking, recalling the most violent moments of the de facto regime's attacks on the people of Honduras.
Revistazo reports 12 people wounded and 37 arrested.
Andrés Pavón, president of the Committee for the Defense of Human Rights in Honduras (CODEH), reported that Efraín Hernández Villalta, a lottery ticket salesman who habitually worked in the Parque Central, died of the effects of the massive tear gas attack. Others were badly injured by beatings, with witnesses reporting not just the use of the batons issued to riot police (which are bad enough) but of wooden clubs.
Revistazo quotes the rationalization provided by the police:
It is not clear what this might mean. With even less credibility, an unnamed police member is quoted as saying
What seems really to have happened is somewhat different. The Artists in Resistance had set up a stage for a concert. The police attack was unprovoked and coordinated, with tear gas shot into the plaza from the banks that line the north side. Water cannons were used on the stage and the band, destroying the equipment and instruments there.
While El Tiempo reported the violence in San Pedro promptly, other Honduran news media, while at least admitting that "thousands" of members of the Resistance marched in Tegucigalpa, downplayed the incident. La Prensa wrote that in San Pedro Sula "some incidents without major consequences were registered."
La Tribuna presented the most complete account of the rationalization by the security forces of the attacks in San Pedro Sula:
El Tiempo has now updated its website with a long article that effectively refutes this account. They write that "The indiscriminate dislodging provoked chaos and confusion".
They report that the attack in the Parque Central was by the dreaded Special Squadron Cobras and even members of the Armed Forces.
Among those injured and affected by tear gas were onlookers, members of the press, and reportedly, some students.
Members of Cafe Guancasco have issued their own statement describing the unprovoked attack on the stage.
Videos of the moment of confrontation show resistance members attacked without provocation. The Roman Catholic church that faces the square appears prominently in the background, with clouds of gas floating into the crowd.
So let's be sure we understand this: the repression was, as has become normal, disproportionate. The primary victims were musicians and those waiting for a concert, one of the activities through which members of the resistance have continued to express solidarity.
And one harmless vendor died.
Two stories in El Tiempo tell the story:
The FNRP Demands True Independencereads one; the other
The Police Dislodge the FNRP
The first story, time-stamped 9:41 am reported that "tens of thousands of people" marched in San Pedro Sula, attempting to stop at the statue of 19th century founding father Francisco Morazán before proceeding to the lovely main plaza of San Pedro where a concert was planned.
The second headline, posted at 11:23 am, sadly, leads a story of brutal violence used to shut down a concert with popular pro-Resistance performers, Cafe Guancasco. The photos and videos are shocking, recalling the most violent moments of the de facto regime's attacks on the people of Honduras.
Revistazo reports 12 people wounded and 37 arrested.Andrés Pavón, president of the Committee for the Defense of Human Rights in Honduras (CODEH), reported that Efraín Hernández Villalta, a lottery ticket salesman who habitually worked in the Parque Central, died of the effects of the massive tear gas attack. Others were badly injured by beatings, with witnesses reporting not just the use of the batons issued to riot police (which are bad enough) but of wooden clubs.
Revistazo quotes the rationalization provided by the police:
they said that they were obligated to disperse the demonstrators, in the face of the intrusion that they made in the marches of the schools in the patriotic festival.
It is not clear what this might mean. With even less credibility, an unnamed police member is quoted as saying
"We had to disperse them because among them there were people carrying firearms and they tried to make disturbances."
What seems really to have happened is somewhat different. The Artists in Resistance had set up a stage for a concert. The police attack was unprovoked and coordinated, with tear gas shot into the plaza from the banks that line the north side. Water cannons were used on the stage and the band, destroying the equipment and instruments there.
While El Tiempo reported the violence in San Pedro promptly, other Honduran news media, while at least admitting that "thousands" of members of the Resistance marched in Tegucigalpa, downplayed the incident. La Prensa wrote that in San Pedro Sula "some incidents without major consequences were registered."
La Tribuna presented the most complete account of the rationalization by the security forces of the attacks in San Pedro Sula:
The march coordinated by the Frente in San Pedro Sula was detoured at 10 AM, apparently because it had presented disturbances, according to the report of the National Police.There are familiar strategies here. Claiming to have "intelligence reports" of violent intentions to justify a pre-emptive attack; the police as reasonable actors offering a compromise (one that limits the freedom of assembly and speech of the citizenry); vague claims of disturbances, and minimizing the actual security violence and injuries.
The Police intervened when the two marches coincided in the city center, with the result of various people beaten and detained, but then both continued along separate streets, according to local media.
...
In San Pedro Sula, the resistance began its march, walking from the Dandi market along 14th avenue, nonetheless one block before arriving at 1st street [more commonly called the Boulevard Morazan after the statue located there] it was diverted.
The chief of police of San Pedro Sula, Héctor Iván Mejía, spoke with one of the directors of the FNRP and would have allowed a commission of 12 to 15 people to go to place a floral offering at the statue of General Morazán, but they did not accept this and continued their walk along 2nd street until they arrived at the Parque Central.
“We used the human and material resources that the State assigned us to maintain order. They wanted to install themselves next to the other march and according to intelligence reports they wanted to do damage to intimidate those that were peacefully marching", said Mejía.
El Tiempo has now updated its website with a long article that effectively refutes this account. They write that "The indiscriminate dislodging provoked chaos and confusion".
They report that the attack in the Parque Central was by the dreaded Special Squadron Cobras and even members of the Armed Forces.
Among those injured and affected by tear gas were onlookers, members of the press, and reportedly, some students.
Members of Cafe Guancasco have issued their own statement describing the unprovoked attack on the stage.
Videos of the moment of confrontation show resistance members attacked without provocation. The Roman Catholic church that faces the square appears prominently in the background, with clouds of gas floating into the crowd.
So let's be sure we understand this: the repression was, as has become normal, disproportionate. The primary victims were musicians and those waiting for a concert, one of the activities through which members of the resistance have continued to express solidarity.
And one harmless vendor died.
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