tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post4280060724910158858..comments2023-09-11T10:45:49.957-07:00Comments on Honduras Culture and Politics: That Pesky Zelaya ProblemRAJhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00097415587406899236noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-14321295594121080282010-12-16T06:34:13.953-08:002010-12-16T06:34:13.953-08:00"These costs...are remarkably minor in the gr...<i>"These costs...are remarkably minor in the grand scheme of things"</i>:<br /><br />well, no. The cessation of multinational participation in setting a variety of boundaries has major economic implications, security implications, and postpones resolution of political problems that existed even before the coup.<br /><br /><i>"[T]ourists did not avoid Copan simply because Honduras wasn't in the OAS"</i>:<br /><br />perhaps not; perhaps they dropped Honduras from their vacation agendas because of the coup itself, and the civil unrest it set in motion. In either case, the loss of income from tourism is not a trivial impact on the Honduran economy. You may want to attribute the entire decline of 17% year to year to the world economy, but think again; worldwide tourism declined on average 4% in 2009, then recovered to grow 7% in the first eight months of 2010, according to the <a href="http://unwto.org/en" rel="nofollow">UN World Tourism Organization</a>.<br /><br />As for your opinions on OAS (which frankly, we could not quite understand), the point is: Honduras wants OAS recognition because it is important politically and economically. The US, after long insisting that everyone should just vote to readmit Honduras because the coup was "behind" and that Lobo Sosa's government was one of "reconciliation", has now finally come into alignment with the major Latin American nations that did not agree.RAJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00097415587406899236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-79085196278974882762010-12-14T15:51:23.434-08:002010-12-14T15:51:23.434-08:00These "costs" (as in the costs in Hondur...These "costs" (as in the costs in Honduras listed at the end) are remarkably minor in the grand scehem of things, or in almost any scheme. Additionally, the list conflates not being in the OAS with all other consequences of the coup, which is not accurate or helpful. After all, tourists did not avoid Copan simply because Honduras wasn't in the OAS, and comparing a single month is misleading. The U.S. needs OAS to be/seem important, hence the U.S. needs friendlies in OAS - Honduras, historically anyway, was about the friendliest. The U.S. doesn't want OAS supplanted, which is what many negative OAS voters might opt for. So, appeasing is an attempt to hold together an outfit that has less and less meaning as the years go by. Many member countries could do without the OAS, even broke Honduras. The US needs OAS, hence they need OAS votes - and what they do to get them need not be tied to any 2-party or mystery dealings.Marcus Brewerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03296599873039350043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-22239154297010004202010-12-13T16:36:10.471-08:002010-12-13T16:36:10.471-08:00Unless there's behind-the-scenes double-dealin...Unless there's behind-the-scenes double-dealing, this would also suggest that the real orders to the Honduran "government" do not come from the State Department. Presumably they are hearing from their real masters, whoever those are, that keeping Zelaya out is more important than keeping the country solvent. <br /><br />--CharlesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-13357609210768254242010-12-13T14:27:36.294-08:002010-12-13T14:27:36.294-08:00It seems clear to us that indeed, the US would lik...It seems clear to us that indeed, the US would like to reinforce the two party dominance of Honduran politics, so if the State Department analysis suggests returning Zelaya would help with that, we can surely see that contributing.<br /><br />The question is whether to the US State Department Zelaya's presence would strengthen the Liberal Party or not. Trying to answer that question seems like a very good object for continued thought and critical reading of US statements. <br /><br />Up to now, there has not seemed to us to be any sense from the US that the Honduran two-party system needs Zelaya. Rather, they seemed to want to put both Zelaya and Micheletti-- twin ends, in some ways, of the Liberal Party as it was-- in the past. But thinking on this may have changed. And certainly, the US seems completely opposed to any continued organization outside the existing party structure, where Zelaya could be a very influential figure if he stays with the Frente instead of resuming a leading role in the Liberal Party.RAJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00097415587406899236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1338612245455097792.post-52503552483221541882010-12-13T13:40:42.504-08:002010-12-13T13:40:42.504-08:00Why does the US now want Zelaya to return? It'...Why does the US now want Zelaya to return? It's partly to "rehabilitate" Honduras in the international community, as you suggest. But might it also be part of an effort to support the Liberal Party. If Zelaya returns and continues to be connected with the Liberal Party that could mean, as some have suggested here, that the US wants to continue the "two party system" which has been conducive to US interests. Just a thought.John (Juancito) Donaghyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12711543214465586727noreply@blogger.com